There are reports that the radical team of Senators Joseph Lieberman and Lindsey Graham are joining together to propose a "sense of the Senate" resolution that essentially will block any realistic negotiated deal with Iran on its nuclear program. One provision of the draft resolution "rejects a negotiated agreement with Iran permitting any sort of nuclear enrichment, including for energy programs." Thus, while according the NPT bylaws the enrichment of uranium for peaceful purposes is the "inalienable right" of a member state, this resolution strives to abolish this right. Essentially, Iran would have to stop all enrichment activity. In response, it is not clear if the US would agree to remove any current sanctions or avoid adding further sanctions.
The sanctions on Iran appear to have taken a life of their own. Congress is incapable of passing any meaningful legislation to address the economy, taxes, jobs or anything else of significance. However, it passes a new sanctions bill on Iran almost every week. President Obama also promptly signs every one of these bills, in the fear that he will look weak in an election year.
Earlier, the most radical member of the House of Representative, Rep. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, pushed through the Iran Threat Reduction Act (H.R. 1905) which became part of the Defense appropriation that Congress passed and the President signed. Under this bill which passed the Senate 100-0, essentially any formal contact with Iran by a US official is banned, unless the President informs the Congress in advance. Finally, the bill allows the termination of the act when the President certifies to Congress that Iran:
- Has dismantled its efforts to develop or acquire nuclear, chemical, biological, and ballistic missile weapons.
- No longer provides support for acts of international terrorism.
- Poses no threat to U.S. national security, interests, or allies.
These provisions are so stringent and so open to interpretation that essentially no deal with Iran will be possible anytime in the near future.
The so-called dispute with Iran on its nuclear program has taken absurd dimensions. At first, the US accused Iran of attempting to develop nuclear weapons. Then, the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released during President Bush's term stated that Iran had terminated its nuclear weapons program in 2003. However, in response, Iran stated that it never had a nuclear weapons program and President Bush said that he does not believe the NIE. Apparently, he either received divine communication in this regard or he believed that 16 US intelligence agencies conspired to support Iran.
In 2011 another NIE was produced by the US intelligence community that essentially said the same thing. However, the full text is still classified. The conservative publication Washington Times revealed some of the details by stating:
"An annual intelligence report to Congress has dropped language stating that Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions are a future option."
Thus, no only the 2011 NIE repeated the 2007 claim that Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons, it even abandoned the language that stated that Iran is leaving its options open for future development of nuclear weapons.
More recently, the rhetoric has shifted from the claim that Iran is developing nuclear weapons to the claim that Iran is developing the "capability" to develop nuclear weapons. It is this notion of capability that the Lieberman-Graham resolution appears to address. As one Iranian official said, it is like saying a person cannot buy a kitchen knife, because he may try to kill you with it. Alternatively, it is like saying a person cannot exercise and become strong because he may try to beat you up.
In review, the bar is set extremely high for Iran and it keeps going higher. Also, there seems to be no end in sight in the barriers Congress will impose on any resolution of the dispute. At least till the end of this election year, no reduction of the tensions in the Middle East should be expected.
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