Cal Orey is a successful book author, prolific article writer, intuitive and also just happens to be ‘a wee bit’ sensitive to earthquakes. Cal was kind enough to answer my questions listed below, recently. A highly interesting podcast interview conducted on March 18, 2011 on ‘It’s Rainmaking Time’ can be listened to here regarding this subject:
http://itsrainmakingtime.com/2011/calorey/
- Cal, I understand that some folks in California thought that they were doomed to experience a catastrophic earthquake for the Extreme Super Moon of March 19th? Can you elaborate as to what happened for them to feel so unsettled?
The Super Moon is a time when the Moon hits "perigree," or closest point to the Earth and this event spawned noteworthy earthquake predictions that ignited fear into people, especially in California. I received emails from scared strangers asking me “Callie, is Saturday the day of the California quake?” So, I followed my gut instinct and posted an anti-prediction on Earthquake EpiCenter (EEC):
http://www.earthquakeepicenterforum.com/index.php
March 19, Day of Supermoon
No significant quake for CA
100% probability
Notes: Many people are claiming on this very day there will be a noteworthy quake in our golden state. Been getting e-mails from people getting frightened. My anti-prediction record is 100% accurate. I only make these when I get strong vibes that a prediction will not happen.
I'm not saying a quake will not happen this month or next month in CA (and I have forecasted there is a good chance we will be next to have a major quake in the upcoming months, and possibly before the summer); but to pinpoint it to one 24-hour period (unless there is a spike in AWOL pets via tabbytracker/fidofinder or aggressive eq swarm) IMO it will not happen right on the day of the full moon. Caveat: 3.0s-4.0s are certainly possibly anywhere in CA that day (offshore norcal/sf bay area/tahoe region/socal) since we are ranked the #4 shakiest state.
The end result: No significant quake hit our golden state. But note, at 1:17 a.m., a 3.5 did indeed hit The Geysers in Northern California (ShakeMail) and was reportedly felt by a few people in San Francisco Bay Area.
2. I know that your accuracy record in earthquake prediction is quite impressive. Regarding the most recent events within the last few months, can you describe to my readers how you were able to determine where and when one might strike?
I use my intuition, knowledge of historical quakes and patterns, physical cues and mental images to predict earthquakes, like I did for the past Japan earthquake—which started out as a major 7.2 and ended up as a great 9.0 quake. Prior to January 3, 2011, when I was a guest on The Mancow Show, I sent the producer my predictions, which included my question and answer:
Is the Pacific Ring of Fire going to produce more great (8.0+) quakes and tsunamis in 2011—and where? YES
On February 27, I put to work my intuition and more. On EEC I posted:
« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2011, 08:26:25 PM »
Eastern Honshu, Japan
(potential epi, near Tokyo)
7.0+
Probability: 60%
Notes: Too many quakes of late; can't get Japan out of my mind; left ear tones. Overdue. Ring of Fire and known to be seismically active.
3. What is meant by the 'seismic window?' Do you collaborate with anyone in order to determine a specific time frame for that?
Seismic window is a time frame when a quake is more prone to occurring. Geologist Jim Berkland turns to two eight-day windows per month: a primary and secondary window based on the New and Full Moons and tides. While I penned the book The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes, and I do believe quakes can happen during these periods, I also know the Earth can move outside of the seismic windows, too.
4. Is there anything that those who live in earthquake-prone areas should look for or be aware of before a quake occurs?
Be aware of Earth changes, including odd animal behavior, whether it be domestic cats and dogs going AWOL, vocalizing, being clingy or wildlife changes, from whales beaching themselves to strange birds or bears coming in close contact to people (as they did prior the 5.6 Alum Rock earthquake October 30, 2007—which I predicted on cue). Animals have an uncanny sixth sense and also may be sensitive to changes in the Earth’s magnetic field. Berkland had once told me that I’m sensitive like a cat. (And by living at Lake Tahoe with my three seismically-sensitive companion animals I sense we feed off each others’ energy.)
5. Can anyone be trained to learn how to predict earthquakes or does it take a special sensitivity to it?
Some people and animals appear to be more intuitive than others. I believe it’s a “gift” to be super sensitive and I’m not certain you can learn how to predict earthquakes. It’s sort of like writing. You can fine-tune your craft but professors in college told me that either you have the gift or you don’t.
For instance, before the World Series Earthquake rumbled through the San Francisco Bay Area on October 17, 1989, I had three cats and one dog. One of my indoor cats moved outside in early August once the foreshock hit and refused to come indoors till the major quake hit. Another cat didn’t eat the morning of the shaker. But my third cat behaved normal--centered. My dog paced in the living room for one week prior to the shaker that rocked my world.
6. Which earthquake prediction that you were able to determine in advance surprised you the most?
I will never forgot the 6.5 that hit offshore Northern California on January 9, 2010. I made a wager for $100 with Jim Berkland about the next Golden State 6.0 earthquake. He said Southern California would be next, I held my ground and said Northern California—and I pinpointed the epi to be near Petrolia or Eureka. I waited more than three years for this quake to happen and didn’t shift my forecast. One Saturday afternoon, a friend in the Bay Area called me and I knew before he told me that my quake prediction rolled in—and I screamed out loud when I logged online and went to the USGS map and saw the huge red square. It is an amazing feeling to sense something oncoming in the future and to have it unfold in front of your eyes:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/dyfi/events/nc/71338066/us/index.html
A Mixed Bag of Predictions for 2011by Cal Orey
Earthquakes
* The West Coast will have significant earthquakes. A 6.0 may rock San Francisco Bay Area (epicenter in the East or South Bay). A major quake will strike Offshore Northern California or Oregon. A 6.5 to 7.0 could rock Southern Californians (epicenters in San Fernando Valley or San Bernardino). On the upside, it won’t be the “big one” yet.
* The Sierra Nevada will get its overdue moderate-strong shaker, at least a 6.0 (possible epicenters at Mammoth Lakes, Truckee, south of South Lake Tahoe or near Reno).
* The Midwest (Arkansas or Missouri) may experience more and stronger shakers than they did in 2010; the quake(s) will be felt in several states.
* Mediterranean countries--(Greece and/or Turkey) will experience a major earthquake like they have in the past.
[Excerpt from Oracle 20/20 Magazine, January 2011 Forecasts, by Cal Orey]
To learn more, another fabulous article can be found here:
http://www.thenervousbreakdown.com/corey/2010/04/cal-orey-the-tnb-self-interview/
Still want to know more? You can contact Cal by going to her website:
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