PS4 is predicted to sell 36m units by 2018, with Xbox One reaching 30m units by the same year, according to Futuresource Consulting, today. Considering the numerous similarities between the two machines and the slew of additional platform options this generation, it’s no surprise that these conjectures have both companies matching or falling short of current generation hardware sales.
Comparatively, PS3 actually sold 35.95m units by its 5th year, offley close to Futuresource’s prediction. Xbox 360’s sales, however, were far better by the time it hit the 5 year mark, totaling 40.3m units, according to vgsales. That said, Xbox One’s 30m forecast, needless to say, is not as favorable over the same span.
Despite these comparisons, Futuresource expects both consoles, overall, will sell less than their predecessors, for, more or less, the same aforementioned reasons above. “Due to the increased availability of high-quality alternative gaming platforms such as mobile devices, as well as expected propositions from tech powerhouses Apple and Google, we expect the installed bases of the Xbox One and PS4 to be 20 percent lower than those of the previous generation after five years on the market.”
Whether or not these predictions come to fruition remains to be seen, but FSC believes this genesis of hardware may be the swan song for home systems. “With increased market convergence and non-traditional competition, we could be looking at the last generation of consoles as we know it,” the report states.
Additionally, most likely attributed to the continual growth of the digital market space and mobile gaming, physical copy sales of PC and handheld games are expected to drop by 12%. A fair assessment with Origin, Steam, eShop, PSN Store, XBL Marketplace and various other digital stores gaining more consumer interest.
Contrary to these lower expectations, the report does foresee an increase in physical retail copy sales; $430m in revenue growth by 2014, bringing the market’s global worth to £18.7 billion, to be exact. A rather surprising optimistic conjecture considering the anticipation for the rest of the industry.
In light of the aforementioned projections, how do the numbers sit with you? Accurate? Off the mark? Sound off below.