Forecast discussion: High pressure over western New York gave Providence another gorgeous summer day. You could not complain about the weather this weekend. We will continue to have clear to partly cloudy skies this evening, and temperatures will fall into the middle 50’s. As we head into tomorrow, the high’s center will begin to move into the Atlantic. This will allow a sea breeze to be created, as winds turn to the south-southeast. So, temperatures will be in the middle 70’s along the coastline.
As we head into Tuesday, we will begin to see our dewpoint temperatures slightly increase. The air will feel a little more humid by the afternoon, as a weak cold front bringing flooding to Minnesota at the moment comes our way. I believe we will remain dry during the day, with the chance for some showers and isolated thunderstorms after midnight. The cold front will stall, so we will see precipitation going into Thursday.
The main question right now is how long the precipitation will last. The American model has once again changed its forecast since yesterday’s model run. Now, the model believes a weak low pressure center will remain stalled south of the area right into Saturday. The European model continues to stay on course, with showers leaving the area by Thursday afternoon. For now, I do not like the inconsistency in the American model at the moment. So, I will go with the consistent European model, giving us partial clearing by Thursday afternoon. However, I might still be changing the timing of the forecast on Thursday over the next couple of days. I will keep the weekend forecast dry, with temperatures slowing climbing into the lower to middle 80’s by next Sunday.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Partly cloudy with a low of 56.
Monday: Mostly sunny with a high of 82. Winds will come from the south-southeast at 9-12 mph.
Monday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 60. Winds will come from the south-southwest at 3-6 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, with increasing clouds by the evening commute. We will see a high of 79.
Tuesday night: Cloudy with showers/thunderstorms after midnight and a low of 64.
Wednesday: Cloudy skies with scattered showers/thunderstorms. We will see a high of 81.
Wednesday night: Scattered showers with a low of 67.
Thursday: Showers end by the early afternoon with partial clearing. Highs 78-81, lows 61-64.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-80, lows 61-64.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 79-82, lows 62-65.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-85, lows 63-66.