Forecast discussion: A high pressure system over the Central Plains brought sunshine into Providence on Tuesday, which made a big difference from Monday. A weak disturbance is passing through Southern New England at the moment, which helped create a lot of cumulus clouds during the afternoon. With the sun setting, the daytime heating will end, and the clouds will burn off, with clear to partly cloudy skies for this evening.
The high will continue to influence our weather into Wednesday and Thursday as well. However, the computer models continue to tempt me to add some showers into the forecast. On Thursday, a surface low over eastern Canada in the American model continues to produce the risk of some isolated showers for Thursday afternoon. The European model keeps us dry, but with increasing clouds Thursday night. This is due to a weak disturbance remaining off the eastern coastline entering the weekend.
This is what leads me to keeping precipitation in the forecast for Friday. A weak high pressure ridge in the Atlantic tries to move over Southern New England. However, the leftover showers from Thursday night remain near the region. So, the models show a tug of war on whether to keep showers in the forecast for Friday. The European model keeps us dry. So, after consideration, I will take out showers during the day on Friday.
However, the weekend still looks gray. The showers will once again return by Saturday, thanks to increased humidity and southwest winds. A weak disturbance will help trigger off and on showers and thunderstorms. The weak ridge will once again try to build back over by Sunday, getting us back to dry weather. However, the showers and thunderstorms may stay over the region all day Sunday. I still need to see another day of model runs to confirm Sunday’s forecast. What does say consistent for the next several days is the cool weather for the end of July and the beginning of August. High temperatures will remain in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s for the entire forecast period.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Partly cloudy with a low of 61.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a high of 81. Winds will shift to the south-southwest at 7-10 mph.
McCoy Stadium Forecast (7:05 p.m. vs. Syracuse): Partly cloudy, 76.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 62. Winds will come from the south-southwest at 3-6 mph.
Thursday: Partly sunny by noon with the chance for an isolated shower. We will see a high of 82.
Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers and a low of 64.
Friday: Partly sunny with a high of 80.
Friday night: Cloudy with scattered showers and a low of 64.
Saturday: Cloudy with scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 76-79, lows 63-66.
Sunday: Showers end by the early morning, and becoming partly to mostly sunny. Highs 78-81, lows 63-66.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-83, lows 65-68.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Highs 81-84, lows 63-66.