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Providence weather: Snow and rain showers for Monday

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Forecast discussion: At the moment, a high pressure ridge over New England is bringing sunshine to the area, and temperatures went higher than I forecast yesterday. As of 3 p.m., T.F. Green Airport had a high of 43 degrees. Also, we will see daylight for another hour, thanks to Daylight Savings Time. But, we will see a little bit more of winter this week.

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For this evening, we will lose the influence of the ridging, as clouds will be increasing through the overnight. This will be due to a low pressure system coming down from central Canada. We will see flurries and scattered snow showers before the morning commute. However, the snowfall will be quite light. Any snow showers and flurries will eventually mix or change over to rain showers by noon. All precipitation will end before the evening commute. Any snow squalls could give some areas up to an inch in snowfall. Otherwise, it will be just a coating to a half-inch.

As we move into Tuesday, a warm front will pass just to our north. It will help bring warmer air over New England, as daytime temperatures reach the lower 50’s. However, colder air will be rushing into the area by the afternoon. This will be due to an approaching low pressure system coming out of West Virginia. It will move into the Mid-Atlantic, and then into Long Island Sound. We will not see any precipitation until the late morning on Wednesday.

The biggest concern forecasting this system is the precipitation type and the track of the low. At this time, all of the computer models I use are now keeping the low’s center to the west of Rhode Island. This means we would be seeing warmer air to begin the storm. So, I have as starting as rain before noon on Wednesday, before become a mix of rain and snow around midnight. By 3 a.m. Thursday, there will be enough cold air in the atmosphere to make it all snow. Light to moderate snow will taper off by the early afternoon, before all snow ends by the evening commute. This scenario could change, as the actual system is still in the Pacific Ocean. I will continue to monitor the models and update you on any changes tomorrow night.

We will begin the weekend with winds diminishing from the storm and mostly sunny skies. However, temperatures will still feel more like January, as high temperatures barely reach freezing. As we move into Saturday, a warm front will pass through, along with some possible showers on Saturday. Temperatures will climb into the middle 40’s. By next Sunday, we will have limited sunshine and highs in the lower 40’s.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Increasing clouds after midnight with a low of 23.
Monday: Flurries and scattered snow showers start around 3 a.m. lasting until 4 p.m. We will see a high of 41 with west-southwest winds at 7-10 mph. A coating to a half inch of snow is possible, with isolated areas possibly seeing up to 1 inch. Snow may mix with or change to rain by noon.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy and milder with a low of 33. Winds will come from the south-southwest at 5-8 mph.
Tuesday: Partly sunny and warmer with a high of 51.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 33.
Wednesday: Cloudy by mid-morning, with showers/light to moderate rain starting by 11 a.m. Winds will be increasing throughout the afternoon. We will see a high of 44.
Wednesday night: Windy with rain changing to a snow/rain mix around 11 p.m. before changing to light snow by 3 a.m. We will have a low of 25.

Extended Forecast:
Thursday: Windy with light snow beginning to taper off by 2 p.m. before ending around 5 p.m. Highs 28-31, lows 15-18.
Friday: Mostly sunny with diminished winds. Highs 34-37, lows 25-28.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with possible showers by the mid-afternoon. Highs 44-47, lows 27-30.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 41-44, lows 26-29.

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