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Providence weather: Showers to start, clearing to finish

The temperature forecast for Southern New England at 2 p.m. EDT on May 31, 2014
The temperature forecast for Southern New England at 2 p.m. EDT on May 31, 2014

Forecast discussion: After a morning and early afternoon with bright sunshine, clouds began to increase over Providence, and a few isolated showers began to fall. The showers are due to an approaching cold front, which will move into northern Massachusetts in the next couple of hours. The front will have showers, periods of rain, and isolated thunderstorms ahead and along the front. We will see the heaviest rainfall during the overnight, with lighter showers by Saturday morning. The front will move offshore Saturday afternoon, allowing for drier air to come in from the north.

We will see the best day of the weekend on Sunday. Also, with the June sunshine, temperatures will actually reach seasonable conditions for the first time in several days. We will see a repeat of temperatures for Monday, but we will be losing the sunshine during the late afternoon. A new frontal boundary will begin to move to the east. This time, it will be a warm front. At this time, it appears the front will remain steadfast near Southern New England. We will not see any precipitation from the front until Tuesday morning. We would then see heavier precipitation late Tuesday night, with the rainfall tapering to showers and ending by around noon on Wednesday.

The only problem is the computer models are disagreeing on whether the warm front will remain stationary for that long period of time. One model continues to forecast that we will remain dry right into Tuesday, as the front takes longer to reach our area. However, the majority of the models agree on precipitation on Tuesday.

We will remain dry with temperatures slightly below normal as we go into the end of next week. High pressure will give us partly to mostly sunny skies for all of Thursday and Friday.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with a low of 51. Thunderstorms may come with gusty winds and small hail.
Saturday: Scattered showers in the morning becoming more isolated through the afternoon. We will see a high near 65 with breezy north-northeast winds of 14-18 mph.
Saturday night: Isolated showers end with clearing skies by 8 p.m. We will see a low of 46 with north-northwest winds of 6-9 mph.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with a high of 77.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 52.
Monday: Mostly sunny through the early afternoon, with increasing clouds. We will see a high of 77.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy skies with a low of 57.

Extended Forecast:
Tuesday: Overcast with showers by 7 a.m. Highs 72-75, lows 58-61.
Wednesday: Rain/thunderstorms in the early morning, ending by noon. Highs 72-75, lows 56-59.
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 72-75, lows 54-57.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-74, lows 54-57.

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