Forecast discussion: A strong high pressure system offshore brought bright sunshine to Providence on Monday, but it also brought strong southwest winds over Rhode Island. Inland areas got above 70 degrees, but the coastline only had temperatures near 55 degrees. The temperature difference was the winds coming off the cooler ocean. This will continue this evening. However, the great, mild weather will be replaced for the next few days.
This evening, a cold front moving through Ohio at the moment will bring a few showers after midnight. Along the coastline, they will see patchy fog and patchy drizzle, due to the temperatures falling near the dewpoint temperature. Scattered showers will push through during Tuesday morning, with heavier rain arriving during the evening. The front will be slow moving, and computer models predict we could see up to an inch and a half of rainfall by early Wednesday morning.
After the cold front passes through, very cold temperatures will remain over New England. This cold air is quite un-normal for this time of the year, as normal high temperatures are in the upper 50’s. Despite bright sunshine, high temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will barely make it to 50 degrees. We will continue to have cold temperatures for the rest of the week.
We will begin to see our temperatures rise by Sunday, as the colder air is pushed northward. A cold front will bring showers ahead of it on Saturday, but end by Sunday morning. We will see limited sunshine for the rest of the day. The American model suggests a low pressure system developing off the coast of North Carolina will drift northward and bring the threat of more showers on Monday. The European and United Kingdom models suggest high pressure will be over the Northeast U.S. and giving us drier weather. For now, my confidence in the forecast after Saturday is low.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Cloudy and breezy with showers arriving by 2 a.m. Patchy fog and drizzle is expected along the south coast. We will see a low of 55.
Tuesday: Breezy with moderate showers in the morning will become moderate to heavy rain by the afternoon. We will see a high of 64 with south winds of 17-20 mph with occasional gusts of 35 mph. A rumble of thunder is possible by the evening commute.
Tuesday night: Moderate to heavy rain tapers to showers by 2 a.m. Showers end by 7 a.m. It will be colder with the low falling to 37. Winds will shift to the northwest at 15-18 mph with occasional gusts of 30 mph a few hours before dawn.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, breezy, and cooler with a high of 48.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy and very cold with a low of 30.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with a high of 50.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 35.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 51-54, lows 37-40.
Saturday: Overcast with scattered showers developing by the late morning. Highs 51-54, lows 40-43.
Sunday: Scattered showers end by mid-morning, and becoming partly sunny by the afternoon. Highs 55-58, lows 40-43.
Monday: Partly sunny with possible showers by the evening. Highs 57-60, lows 42-45.