Forecast discussion: High pressure well offshore brought Providence another day of dry weather. However, we began to see the haze by noon, and it remained quite humid. This high humidity will stick around into Thursday. This will make evenings tough to sleep without a fan or air conditioning.
The biggest story on Tuesday was down off the coast of Florida. Our first tropical system of 2014 formed late Monday night. As of 5 p.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Arthur was centered at 27.8N 79.4W, or about 85 miles east-southeast of Cape Canaveral, FL. Arthur has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, and is moving to the northwest at 4 mph. At this time, the National Hurricane Center believes Arthur will slowly drift northwest to north for the next 24 hours. Once it hits the Gulf Stream, where there is a “river” of warmer water, the system will intensify, and become a weak hurricane off the coast of South Carolina Thursday afternoon. It will track off the coast of North Carolina and be well offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula on Friday afternoon. The next official forecast from the Hurricane Center will be 11 p.m. Tuesday night.
So, what does Arthur have in store for us? For the foreseeable future, the coastline of Rhode Island may see some very high seas and strong rip currents, due to the tropical storm winds. There may be some locally heavy periods of rain, especially along the southern part of the state.
Before Arthur, however, we will be dealing with a slow moving cold front now in the Ohio River Valley. This front will slowly make its way towards New England. We will begin to see a few scattered showers early Thursday morning, before more moisture from the front works its way into the region. The front will help create showers and thunderstorms for Thursday evening, and some thunderstorms may create heavy periods of rain. So, street and river flooding remains a possibility at this time.
As we move into Friday, the moisture from Arthur may enhance more rainfall for part of Friday. Depending on the position of Arthur, we may see further rainfall, especially along the southern part of the state. I feel the northern part will begin to dry out by the late afternoon or early evening. As Arthur moves further into the Atlantic Saturday morning, high pressure moving into the Rockies will give us dry, cooler temperatures for the rest of the weekend.
At this time, I do not want to say that the entire Fourth of July will be a washout. But, the closer the center of Arthur stays to Rhode Island, the greater chance of seeing longer durations of precipitation through the day. To see the latest spaghetti models of Arthur, which show all the hurricane model runs at the same time, click here.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Partly cloudy and very humid with a low of 69. Patchy to dense fog will form, especially along the coastline.
Wednesday: Fog burns off by mid-morning. Partly sunny skies expected and very warm with hazy skies and humid conditions. We will see a high of 89 with south-southwest winds at 10-13 mph.
McCoy Stadium Forecast (6:15 p.m. vs. Rochester): Partly sunny, 83.
Wednesday night: Cloudy and very humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms after midnight with a low of 72. Winds will come from the south-southwest at 5-8 mph.
Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, with thunderstorms may be strong at times. We will see a high of 83.
Thursday night: Scattered showers with an isolated thunderstorm and a low of 69. Thunderstorms may produce heavy periods of rain.
Independence Day: Scattered showers and thunderstorms with winds increasing through the afternoon. We will see a high of 78.
Friday night: Strong winds, periods of heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms. Along the coast, winds will be tropical storm strength with seas building. We will see a low of 64.
Saturday: Rain ending by mid-morning, with decreasing winds and partly to mostly sunny skies by noon. Highs 78-81, lows 60-63.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and less humid. Highs 81-84, lows 63-66.
Monday: Mostly sunny through the day, with increasing clouds in the evening. Highs 82-85, lows 65-68.
Tuesday: Scattered showers after midnight, ending in the mid-morning. Partly sunny skies expected until the early afternoon, with scattered showers/thunderstorms the rest of the day. Highs 83-86, lows 64-67.