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Providence weather: Not a spring day on Monday

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Forecast discussion: Well, spring came and went on Sunday over Rhode Island. A cold front passed through the area a few hours ago. During the afternoon, temperatures began to drop, and will be quite cold for Sunday evening. The cold temperatures will continue into Monday, as high temperatures will not reach freezing. Temperatures will fall into the upper teens once again Monday night.

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As we head into Tuesday, the computer models are still showing a significant low pressure system forming off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina. The low will intensify as it moves northeast. We will begin to see some precipitation start by around noontime, and it will begin as some rain showers. This is due to a weak area of low pressure over New York. By the evening, temperatures will be cold enough to turn the precipitation to snow showers. Winds will be increasing Tuesday night, as the low will be at its strongest intensity. The problem now is if the low moves closer to Southern New England, or continues to move out to sea. Right now, it appears the models agree that the low will track well east of Cape Cod. However, the Cape and Islands will see the possibility of blizzard type winds and moderate snow. For Providence, we will see strong winds and about 3-6 inches by Wednesday afternoon. The light snow may end as some light raindrops before ending in the late afternoon.

We will return to drier weather on Thursday, and highs will reach the lower 40’s. By Friday, winds will turn to the south, and high temperatures will reach the lower 50’s. However, a cold front will bring some rain showers through the day. As we head into the weekend, the computer models are having a slight disagreement. All the models except the American model brings us dry weather for Sunday. But, the American model keeps the low further south and stationary off Long Island Sound. So, we would see heavy rainfall all day on Sunday. For now, I believe in the other models, and will give us partly sunny weather by the afternoon. Slightly cooler air will arrive next Sunday, but high temperatures will be in the lower 50’s.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Skies becoming clear and cold with a low of 14.
Monday: Mostly sunny but quite cold with the high only reaching 29. Winds will come from the north-northwest at 10-13 mph.
Monday night: Clear skies with a low of 17. Winds will become light and variable.
Tuesday: Increasing clouds through the morning with the chance of some rain showers from the late morning to early afternoon. Showers to light snow will start by about 7 p.m. We will see a high of 37.
Tuesday night: Light to moderate snow with increasing winds and a low of 24.
Wednesday: Windy through the morning with light to moderate snow. Precipitation changes to showers by 1 p.m. but ends by 4 p.m. A total of 3-6 inches is possible in the capital city. We will see a high of 36.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 21.

Extended Forecast:
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with increasing clouds through the evening. Highs 40-43, lows 31-34.
Friday: Cloudy with showers arriving by 7 a.m. but ends by 9 p.m. Highs 52-55, lows 41-44.
Saturday: Cloudy skies by the early afternoon with light to moderate rain by 5 p.m. Highs 56-59, lows 38-41.
Sunday: Showers end by the early morning, becoming partly sunny by the afternoon. Highs 49-52, lows 37-40.

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