Forecast discussion: High pressure in the Atlantic is giving Providence another beautiful, summer day. It’s too bad the kids are already in school and we are back at work. The high in Providence reached 86 degrees, according to T.F. Green Airport.
We will still feel this summer weather for the next few days. Winds will slowly turn to the southwest, helping to bring back moisture into the lower levels of the atmosphere. Our dewpoint temperatures will increase this evening, making the air feel muggy as we head off to work and school. We will begin to see more low and mid-level clouds by the evening hours, as a cold front approaches Southern New England. We will not see any precipitation until Saturday morning. The activity appears to be widely scattered. However, some isolated areas may see training of rain bands or thunderstorms, allowing an area to see up to 2 inches of rainfall.
The rainfall and thunderstorm activity will continue into Saturday night. By Sunday morning, the cold front will move offshore, allowing for a ridge of high pressure to build over us. We will return to bright, sunny skies by the afternoon. However, the summer weather will feel like autumn. High temperatures will only reach the middle 70’s, and the air will feel less humid. The good weather will continue into Tuesday evening.
By Tuesday, winds will turn back to the southwest, allowing for moisture to return. We will begin to see increasing clouds ahead of a low pressure system. At this time, the American model continues to develop a low over the Midwest U.S. on late Tuesday, and moves it right over New England. The low brings us some very heavy rainfall through Thursday. However, the European model keeps the low further to the north, and the low is not as strong. The model concludes we may see partly to mostly sunny skies, with the risk of a shower or thunderstorm.
At this time, the American model has been a little more consistent over the last few days with this scenario. However, the low moves further south than yesterday’s model. I feel the model is trying to create a summer pattern from this system, while we are entering the first full week of September. For now, I will keep the American model’s forecast for Thursday, but my confidence in the forecast for Thursday remains low.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Clear skies with a low of 63. Some patchy fog is possible, especially along the south coast.
Friday: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds by the evening. It will become humid with a high of 85. Winds will increase from the south-southwest to 12-15 mph by the afternoon.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy with drizzle and isolated showers arriving by 4 a.m. Patchy to dense fog may develop, especially along the coast. We will see a low of 68 with south-southwest winds of 6-9 mph.
Saturday: Scattered showers/thunderstorms off and on through the day. Heavy rainfall is possible, along with gusty winds and lightning with thunderstorms. It will remain quite humid, with a high of 86.
Saturday night: Showers/rain during the overnight with a low of 63.
Sunday: Rain and isolated thunderstorms tapering to showers before ending by 9 a.m. I am expecting mostly sunny skies for the rest of the day. We will see a high of 76.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 57.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-77, lows 54-57.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds before midnight. Highs 72-75, lows 59-62.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with possible showers by the start of the evening commute. Highs 73-76, lows 59-62.
Thursday: Cloudy with scattered showers in the morning, with heavier rain by the evening commute. Highs 74-77, lows 63-66.