Forecast discussion: As we go into this evening, it appears that the low pressure system I have been talking about the last several days is going to miss us. However, we will still see some snowfall from this system by Monday afternoon.
At the moment, the high pressure ridge that brought sunshine to us over the weekend has weakened. A low pressure system has formed over eastern North Carolina. The low will move along the boundary, which is south of Southern New England. We will begin to see some light snow showers after midnight. However the snowfall will not last very long. The snowfall will leave Providence by the start of the morning commute, and will move completely out of the state before noon. Most of Rhode Island will only see a dusting to as much as 2 inches. The heaviest snowfall will be right along the south coast and Block Island, where they will receive 2-4 inches. For this reason, Block Island is under a Winter Weather Advisory until 12 p.m. Monday. To view a map for yourself, I will take you to a local weather blog by clicking here.
After the snow, that high pressure system will once again bring dry weather. However, more Arctic air will return to the region. Temperatures Monday night will be about 20 degrees below normal. As the high moves east, a weak disturbance may bring a round of snow showers or squalls for a short period of time late Wednesday morning into the early afternoon.
We will remain dry going into the end of the week. However, I will be monitoring the models for the chance for some more precipitation for Friday or Saturday. A low pressure system will develop south of the Florida Panhandle and move northward. Due to southerly winds, temperatures will actually be above freezing by Thursday, and the lower 40’s by Friday. Right now, the American and European models are pushing the low offshore. But, the United Kingdom model keeps the low closer to the coastline, meaning we would see some precipitation. All the models agree that a weak cold front passes through us next Sunday, but I am not going to add any precipitation to the forecast. It appears there is not enough moisture in the upper levels to produce showers.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Cloudy with light snow developing after 1 a.m. A coating to a half inch is possible before dawn. We will see a low of 19.
Monday: Light snow tapers off north to south by 10 a.m., with the south coast seeing the most snowfall. Partly sunny skies are possible before sunset. We will see a high of 25 with north-northwest winds of 11-14 mph. Total accumulations of up to 2 inches until southern Bristol County, with 2-4 inches along the south coast.
Monday night: Clearing skies by 10 p.m. and cold with a low of 7. Winds will come from the north at 5-8 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with a high of 26.
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy and a low of 18.
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny with possible snow showers in the late morning until the early afternoon. We will see a high of 29.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 17.
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 32-35, lows 20-23.
Friday: Mostly sunny to start, with increasing clouds through the late afternoon. Highs 40-43, lows 26-29.
Saturday: Partly sunny with possible rain showers. Highs 40-43, lows 25-28.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 38-41, lows 27-30.