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Providence weather: Light snow, couple of inches by Monday morning

The high temperatures for Southern New England on February 10, 2014.
The high temperatures for Southern New England on February 10, 2014.

Forecast discussion: A weak high pressure ridge brought dry weather to Providence for most of Sunday. However, the high will give way to a low pressure system over western Pennsylvania. This low will bring some light to moderate snow showers by this evening. Any moderate snow bands will occur between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. All snow showers will come to an end before the start of the morning commute on Monday. I’m only expecting a coating to 2 inches, with the highest amounts along the south coast.

Predicted snowfall totals for Monday, February 10, 2014's_Weather_Discussion

We will see sunshine slowly work its way out of the clouds by Monday afternoon. However, a deep upper level trough will bring Arctic air back over the region, starting Monday night. Overnight lows will be in the lower teens Monday and Tuesday evening. High temperatures will only make it to the middle 20’s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Increasing clouds Wednesday night will blanket us, keeping some of the sun’s energy from leaving the atmosphere. Temperatures will only fall to the upper teens.

The computer models have been having a hard time coming to a basic agreement about the next storm system. A low pressure system will begin to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and then follow along the eastern coastline. The track if the low is the most important aspect. At this time, with the exception of the American model, the low stays offshore and to our east. This means we would stay in the colder part of the low. This means we would see some decent snowfall Thursday into early Friday morning. However, the American model puts the low’s center further to the west. So, we would start off as snow then change to a wintry mix, before changing over to rain. At this time, my confidence level still remains low. The low’s track changing even 30 miles either way greatly changes the precipitation type, and therefore the snowfall amounts.

The models do agree that any snow showers will end by early Friday morning. A high pressure system slowly moves over the Mid-Atlantic and gives us dry weather for next weekend. Temperatures will be seasonable during the day, although Saturday night’s low temperatures are slightly below normal for the middle of February.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Light snow showers, although some areas may see moderate snow between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. We will see a low of 21.
Monday: Light snow showers ending by 6 a.m. Sunny skies expected the rest of the day. We will see a high of 30. About a dusting to 2 inches is possible, with the highest snowfall along the south coast. Isolated areas could see up to 3 inches.
Monday night: Partly cloudy and very cold with a low of 13. Winds will come from the northwest at 11-15 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with a high of 26.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy and bone chilling cold with the mercury falling to 10 degrees.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds by the evening commute. We will see a high of 27.
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy and warmer with a low of 19.

Extended Forecast:
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with snow changing to sleet and rain in the afternoon. Precipitation changes back to light snow in the overnight. Highs 38-41, lows 27-30.
Friday: Early morning snow showers ending in the morning. Partly sunny skies expected for the rest of the day. Highs 37-40, lows 24-27.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 34-37, lows 21-24.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs 33-36, lows 20-23.

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