Forecast discussion: High pressure offshore of Cape Cod gave Providence a beautiful weekend. Since Monday was a state holiday, the high decided to give us one more extra day of sunshine. It was a little cooler for a high temperature today at 82 degrees, but this was because winds came from the southwest, which is a sea breeze.
As we head into Tuesday, we will begin to lose the influence of the high, as it moves out into the Atlantic. A complex series of low pressure systems out west and to our south will bring the potential for some heavy rainfall and possible severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. We will only see increasing clouds through Tuesday afternoon, and we will not see the first raindrops until after midnight.
The heaviest rainfall will come between the morning commute and the end of the evening commute. In fact, the National Weather Service just issued a Flash Flood Watch for Providence County from Tuesday night until Wednesday afternoon. The American model has been quite consistent on giving us the heaviest rainfall during this time period. Also, the models have been showing the right features for some possible severe thunderstorms to form. Thunderstorms may be accompanied by small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. With high tide also expected, there is the chance for some coastal flooding for the south coast.
By early Thursday morning, the low will move into Canada, and the cold front will move out to sea. A high pressure system over South Dakota will bring partly to mostly sunny skies for the first half of the weekend. A low pressure system forming over Quebec may bring a few showers down into Southern New England by early Sunday morning. Any shower activity will end by early Monday morning, with drier air over our area by the middle of Monday morning. Daytime temperatures will still remain slightly below normal, as they stay in the middle 70’s to lower 80’s.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: A passing shower until 9 p.m., then clear skies with a low of 64. Patchy to dense fog is possible along the south coast.
Tuesday: Cloudy skies by the early afternoon with a high of 79. Winds will come from the south-southeast at 12-15 mph.
Tuesday night: Showers by midnight with periods of light rain and a low of 67. Winds will come from the east-southeast at 12-15 mph.
Wednesday: Showers with periods of heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms. The thunderstorms have the potential to be severe. We will see a high of 76.
Wednesday night: Precipitation tapers to showers by 7 p.m. with all precipitation ending by midnight. We will see a low of 63.
Thursday: Mostly sunny skies with the high only reaching 77.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 60.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 75-78, lows 59-62.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs 76-79, lows 61-64.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with possible showers starting in the early morning. Highs 78-81, lows 62-65.
Monday: Showers end just after midnight, with mostly sunny skies by mid-morning. Highs 77-80, lows 62-65.