Forecast discussion: Some warmer air moved over Rhode Island on Thursday, thanks in part to a warm front that passed through the region earlier in the morning. The front will help shift our winds to the southeast, allowing for warmer air but also higher humidity. A cold front will slowly push through Southern New England tomorrow, bringing us some heavy rainfall by tomorrow evening.
Right now, the cold front is giving heavy rainfall to both North and South Carolina. This rainfall will arrive by the middle of the evening commute on Friday. During the morning, we will see drizzle, mist, and patchy fog, as the dewpoint temperatures stay relatively close to the air temperatures. As the front inches closer, the afternoon will see some isolated to scattered showers. By tomorrow night, we will see widespread showers, before becoming a moderate to heavy rain. There is the small chance for some isolated thunderstorms. At this time, we could see up to 2 inches in the heaviest rainfall.
The heavier rainfall will continue into the morning hours on Saturday, before the cold front moves offshore. The rainfall will taper off through the early afternoon, before the precipitation ends by the late afternoon. We should see some partial sunshine before sunset. We will probably see our high temperature for the day before sunset.
As we head into early next week, we will see cooler temperatures, thanks to an upper level low. Colder air streaming down from Canada will be wrapped behind the low’s center. As the low rotates over New England, we will see a series of weak low pressure systems moving like a wheel. The lows will try to create some scattered showers from Sunday into Tuesday afternoon. After the sun sets, the daytime heating will end, and we will see the precipitation come to an end. A weak area of high pressure will finally bring drier weather for Wednesday, as well as warmer temperatures. The upper level low will finally push east, allowing for warmer air to enter the Northeast U.S. For Thursday, I will go with the European model, which has a warm front moving into the region, producing some showers by midnight on early Thursday morning.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Overcast with patchy fog by midnight and drizzle by 3 a.m. We will have a low of 60.
Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with drizzle and a passing shower until the mid-afternoon. We will then see scattered showers. I expect a high of 71 with southeast winds of 14-17 mph.
Friday night: Moderate to heavy rain with scattered thunderstorms and a low of 60. Patchy fog is expected. Winds will come from the southeast at 14-17 mph.
Saturday: Heavy rain and thunderstorms through noon. Rain tapers to showers before ending by 4 p.m. We will see a high of 73.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 51.
Sunday: Partly sunny with isolated showers by 2 p.m. We will see a high of 67.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 51.
Monday: Partly sunny with possible showers by the mid-afternoon. Highs 62-65, lows 48-51.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with possible afternoon showers. Highs 61-64, lows 49-52.
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 64-67, lows 49-52.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with showers. Highs 67-70, lows 52-55.