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Providence weather: Heat and humidity are here

The expected temperature for Southern New England at 2 p.m. EDT on June 17, 2014
The expected temperature for Southern New England at 2 p.m. EDT on June 17, 2014 http://www.intellicast.com/National/Temperature/TEMPcast.aspx?region=hfd

Forecast discussion: After some morning clouds, a high pressure system well off the coast of North Carolina is giving Rhode Island mostly sunny skies. However, the high is also helping to bring more moisture up into Southern New England. You may have noticed how humid the day has been up to this point. As we move into tonight, a warm front to our northwest will aid in creating patchy fog. It will also have the chance to create some isolated showers and thunderstorms.

The warm front will pass to our north, and any precipitation should end before the end of the morning commute. The cold front will not arrive until tomorrow night, so I am expecting some sunshine and very warm temperatures. Some inland areas may reach 90 degrees. With the humidity, the heat index will make it feel like the middle 90’s. We may see a passing shower or thunderstorm tomorrow night. Some thunderstorms may create heavy periods of rainfall.

By Thursday morning, the cold front will be offshore, and cooler air from Canada will begin to move into New England. I am expecting high temperatures to reach the lower 80’s on Thursday, and into the upper 70’s on Friday. At this time, there are no significant weather features around New England, except for a weak high pressure ridge. However, temperatures will be cool, as daytime highs only reach the middle 70’s.

As we head into next week, the computer models are very unsure about the next weather system. At this time, the American model brings a weak cold front from the north down through Rhode Island. The model feels we will see some isolated showers by the evening commute. However, the European model feels the front will move faster, giving us isolated showers by Monday morning. At this time, I am not sure which model is correct. So, I will split the difference and call for isolated showers in the afternoon. As we head into next Tuesday, a low pressure system over the Tennessee River Valley may bring some showers and thunderstorms to our area by Tuesday night. High temperatures will only reach the seasonable level, as they approach the middle 70’s.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms after midnight. It will be humid with patchy fog and a low of 67.
Wednesday: Showers/thunderstorms end by 8 a.m. Partly sunny skies expected with the slight chance for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. It will be hot with a high of 88. Winds will come from the northwest at 11-14 mph.
Wednesday night: An isolated shower or thunderstorm before 2 a.m. Clearing skies expected for the rest of the overnight hours. We will only have a low of 66 with northwest winds at 5-8 mph.
Thursday: Mostly sunny skies with a high of 81.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 60.
Friday: Mostly sunny with a high of 78.
Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a low of 59.

Extended Forecast:
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs 73-76, lows 57-60.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-76, lows 60-63.
Monday: Cloudy with isolated showers by the mid-afternoon. Highs 73-76, lows 60-63.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with the chance for evening showers/thunderstorms. Highs 75-78, lows 62-65.