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Providence weather: Grey but warmer on Wednesday

The weather map for Southern New England at 2 p.m. EDT on May 14, 2014. An isolated shower is possible.
The weather map for Southern New England at 2 p.m. EDT on May 14, 2014. An isolated shower is possible.

Forecast discussion: It’s amazing the difference a day makes, and in this case, I’m talking about the weather. Yesterday everyone was outside, or wanted to be outside, as high temperatures reached 82 degrees in Providence. On Tuesday, the high temperature for the day was 63 degrees. Despite the bright sunshine in the morning, easterly winds, thanks in part to a back door cold front, helped bring cooler air over the region. Despite high pressure, we will have mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures this evening.

High temperature forecast for May 14, 2014

As we move into the middle of the week, we will still see limited sunshine with a widely isolated shower. Temperatures could reach the upper 60’s if we see more sunshine in the afternoon, much like Tuesday. By tomorrow night, our dewpoint temperatures will be rising, as winds turn to the south. So, expect patchy fog during the overnight, and we could see patches of fog during the Thursday morning’s commute. Warmer air will help bring our temperatures back into the lower 70’s.

We will continue to see isolated showers into Thursday night, until a new cold front in the central U.S. brings a better chance for rainfall. The front will extend down into the Gulf of Mexico, bringing that extra moisture towards the region. By Friday, the computer models are showing an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. This trough will dig, or deepen, allowing for a second low pressure center to form off the Delmarva Peninsula. This low will help bring heavy rainfall, and with dewpoint temperatures in the lower 60’s, scattered thunderstorms are possible from Friday night until Saturday morning. The rainfall will taper off to showers by Saturday afternoon, before the front moves Saturday night.

As we go into early next week, that upper level low will create a closed low pressure system, and this low will remain over the Northeast U.S. This upper level low will keep unsettled weather over the area. The long range computer models feel the upper level low will help create some weak low pressure centers at the surface, keeping the threat of showers for Monday and Tuesday. The upper level low will also bring cooler air down into the region, as high temperatures are only expecting to reach the lower 60’s by next Tuesday.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and cooler with a low of 46.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with a high of 67. Winds will come from the south-southeast at 7-10 mph.
Wednesday night: Cloudy with patchy fog developing by midnight and isolated showers by 4 a.m. We will see a low of 57 with winds coming from the south at 4-7 mph.
Thursday: Partly sunny with isolated showers and feeling more humid with a high of 72. Patchy fog burns off by mid-morning.
Thursday night: Isolated showers with a low of 62.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers through the daytime hours. Patchy fog is possible during the afternoon. We will have a high of 70.
Friday night: Moderate to heavy rain with scattered thunderstorms by 10 p.m. and a low of 58.

Extended Forecast:
Saturday: Heavy rain and thunderstorms through 2 p.m., tapering to showers in the afternoon, before ending in the early evening. Highs 65-68, lows 53-56.
Sunday: Partly sunny with widely isolated showers by 2 p.m. Highs 67-70, lows 51-54.
Monday: Partly sunny with possible showers by the mid-afternoon. Highs 64-67, lows 49-52.
Tuesday: Cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 61-64, lows 47-50.