Forecast discussion: Today, a high pressure ridge kept some dry air over Rhode Island during Saturday morning. However, by the early afternoon, a weak disturbance passed through, creating some widely isolated showers. It quickly passed into eastern Massachusetts a few hours later, and skies become partly cloudy.
As we move through Saturday night, we will begin to see increasing clouds once again. Also, the dewpoint will be increasing, so the coastline may see some patchy fog before sunrise. Meanwhile, a low pressure system over the northern Great Lakes will help bring the risk of some showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Some thunderstorms may have gusty winds and periods of heavy rain with them.
A second low pressure system will help bring the next risk of showers and thunderstorms for Sunday night into Monday. This front is just passing eastern Minnesota. The front will get blocked as it tries to move offshore Monday night. So, we may see isolated showers continue into Tuesday morning. For now, the models feel the front will move the precipitation from inland areas.
A strong high pressure system over the eastern Rockies will bring drier weather for Tuesday night, Wednesday, and part of Thursday morning. However, the high will not bring any summer heat. Thanks to an upper level low that has remained over eastern Canada, our high temperatures have only been in the upper 70’s to middle 80’s for most of the last few weeks. In fact, as of Friday, we have only had 3 days at 90 degrees or above for 2014. Last year, when we had an upper level ridge, we had 15 days at the same time frame.
Looking past Thursday morning, a low pressure system over eastern Canada will try to bring moisture down into the region. There is the chance of some isolated showers coming down from eastern Canada into New England. The activity returns northward on Friday, as we will see more clouds than sunshine. As we head into next Saturday, there is a chance of our streak of eight straight Saturdays in a row without precipitation comes to an end. A weak disturbance over the coastline of North Carolina may bring the risk of isolated showers into Rhode Island. However, the models do disagree on the placement of the disturbance, as well as how much moisture is in the atmosphere. The European model keeps the showers well off to our west. So, I may even take the showers out of the forecast if I can see more continuity from the European models in the next few days.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Becoming mostly cloudy and more humid. There is the chance of patchy fog along the coast. We will see a low of 65.
Sunday: Cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms starting by mid-morning. We will see a high of 82 with south-southwest winds of 11-14 mph. We may see gusts up to 25 mph at times.
Sunday night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms with a low of 69. Winds will come from the south-southwest at 9-12 mph.
Monday: Scattered showers/thunderstorms with a high of 82.
Monday night: Scattered showers/thunderstorms. We will see a low of 66.
Tuesday: Showers end by 2 a.m. with mostly sunny skies by the late morning. We will have a high of 79.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 62.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-81, lows 61-64.
Thursday: Partly sunny with possible showers by the late morning. Highs 79-82, lows 65-68.
Friday: An early morning shower possible, with partly sunny skies. Highs 80-83, lows 63-66.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 78-81, lows 65-68.