Forecast discussion: A very strong high pressure system moving over the Great Lakes providing Providence with a beautiful autumn Tuesday. Right now, this high will continue to control our weather pattern right into the end of the week. We will continue to see mostly sunny skies during the day and clear to partly cloudy skies at night.
The weather pattern does not get interesting until Sunday. Right now, the long range computer models are disagreeing on a developing low pressure system off the coast of South Carolina. The European and Canadian models feel that the low will slowly move to the north and west, and move into New England. This means we would see some windy conditions along with some showers and light periods of rain for Monday into early Tuesday morning. The United Kingdom model keeps the low basically out to sea, as the high protects us. The American model is somewhere in the middle, keeping the low from moving inland, but we would see some passing showers Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
At this time, I believe more in the American and United Kingdom models. I do believe the low will stay more offshore, looking to find an area of lower pressure to move towards, as low pressure systems always moves towards lower pressure. It is possible the low will weaken while running into the strong high pressure ridge. For now, my confidence in the forecast beyond Sunday is quite low, due to the substantial differences in the forecast models.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Clear skies with a low of 45.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a high of 70. Winds will come from the north at 6-9 mph.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 50. Winds will come from the north at 2-5 mph.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with a high of 70.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 51.
Friday: Mostly sunny with a high of 71.
Friday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 49.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 69-72, lows 48-51.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-73, lows 50-53.
Monday: Mostly cloudy by the late afternoon with possible showers and light rain before midnight. Highs 69-72, lows 52-55.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny after early morning showers. Highs 69-72, lows 51-54.