Forecast discussion: Looking at the 7 p.m. radar imagery, a small line of thunderstorms has formed east of Springfield, and moving through Hartford, CT at the moment. This line of storms is just one of many that will try to make its way over Providence this evening. However, once the cold front that is creating these storms move offshore Friday afternoon, we will see a calm and autumn like weekend.
At the moment, the cold front is located over western New York. The front will continue to move towards New England this evening, helping to create some strong thunderstorms. At this time, there are no warnings in effect for Rhode Island. We will see some showers, localized periods of rain, and isolated thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may have small hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Some areas may see up to 2 inches of precipitation, so watch out for any local street or river flooding. The precipitation will continue into the early afternoon on Friday, before skies begin to slowly clear during the evening.
As we head into the rest of the weekend, high pressure coming into the Northern Plains will bring some cooler air down from Canada. Temperatures will be slightly below normal, but low temperatures will slowly rise into the lower 50’s by Sunday evening. A cold front may create a passing shower on Monday, before a new high pressure system takes over on Tuesday.
We may feel the coolest day of the season on Tuesday, as highs will barely make it into the middle 60’s. As the high moves offshore, and winds turn to the southwest, temperatures will return back to normal by Thursday.
The tropics continue to remain active, as we now have three named systems in the Atlantic. As of 5 p.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Gabrielle was at 34.4N 67.9W, or about 230 miles northwest of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds were at 40 mph, and was moving north-northwest at 8 mph. Gabrielle will continue to race northward, and be picked up by the departing cold front over the weekend. Gabrielle will then become absorbed by the front, and become a post tropical system within 36 hours.
Also, Hurricane Humberto was located at 23.1N 29.2W, or about 595 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Humberto has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, and is moving north-northwest at 14 mph. The eye can no longer be seen on the satellite imagery, as it begins to run into some wind shear to its southwest. The system will continue to move in a northwest direction, and will run into cooler waters. The system will continue to weaken, until Humberto begins to reach some warmer waters five days from now. It will then gradually strengthen, but it will only increase sustained winds about 5 mph.
Finally, the system near the Yucatan Peninsula had enough thunderstorm activity and developed a center circulation. An Air Force reconnaissance plane confirmed the data, so the National Weather Service named it Tropical Depression Ten. Ten is centered at 19.7N 93.6W, or about 175 miles east-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. It has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, and is moving west at 7 mph. The system will meander near the coastline, while slowly intensifying. The system will reach maximum sustained winds of 60 mph within four days, but the center is forecast to move over land within 5 days. Winds will then decrease to 30 mph by Tuesday afternoon.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Showers, periods of localized, heavy rain, and scattered thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be severe, with frequent lightning and small hail. Some localized street or river flooding into the morning commute is possible. We will see a low of 67.
Friday: Showers/rain ending around the early afternoon. Partly to mostly sunny skies expected by the late afternoon. We will see a high of 78 with west-northwest winds at 7-10 mph.
McCoy Stadium Forecast (Governor’s Cup Game #3 vs. Durham Bulls): Partly cloudy, 70.
Friday night: Clear skies and much cooler with a low of 53. Winds will come from the northwest at 4-7 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 70.
Saturday night: Clear skies with a low of 48.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with a high of 71.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 53.
Monday: Partly sunny with a widely isolated afternoon shower. Highs 70-73, lows 45-48.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-66, lows 48-51.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-74, lows 50-53.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-78, lows 51-54.