Forecast discussion: We kept clouds and some showers over Providence on Sunday, as a frontal boundary remained to our south. As a low pressure system over the northern Great Lakes moves eastward, the front will move north. As it moves through, it will help produce some scattered showers during the overnight. Also, our temperatures and dewpoints will be increasing, so expect some dense fog at times.
As we head through Monday, warmer air will move over the region, as temperatures increase to the upper 70’s. We will also continue to see off and on showers, with heavier precipitation as the cold front passes through Monday night. We might see some quick street and river flooding, as we may see up to an inch and a half of rainfall in a short period of time. Precipitation will diminish to showers by the morning commute on Tuesday, with sunshine expected by the afternoon.
High pressure will give us dry weather and below normal to seasonable temperatures into Wednesday night. The computer models are having problems figuring out what to do with the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen. The low will move off the Southeast coast of the Atlantic, and become stationary off the east coast. The models are not sure what to do with the system. The American model brings the low slowly northward, giving us showers and periods of rain Thursday night into Friday. The European model keeps the low away from us, and takes it eventually out to sea. The United Kingdom model keeps it moving out to sea after Thursday.
So, after looking over the models, I will slowly bring the low back to the north, giving us some showers starting late Thursday night. The high will lose its influence on us as the center moves into the Atlantic, allowing the low to move north. The low will push out to sea by Friday night. However, my confidence in the forecast remains very low, due to the inconsistency in the computer models. We will return to drier weather for next weekend.
As of 11 a.m. Sunday, Karen received its last advisory from the National Hurricane Center, as it is now a remnant low. The final position was centered at 28.1N 89.9W, or about 85 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds were at 30 mph, and was moving east at 13 mph. The low will bring about 1-2 feet of storm surge to the Gulf Coast, as well as much as 6 inches of rainfall in isolated areas. Some power outages are possible, especially with strong wind gusts in thunderstorms.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Overcast with some dense fog with drizzle and isolated showers. We will see a low of 58.
Monday: Dense fog burns off by mid-morning. Expect overcast skies and warmer with scattered showers throughout the day. We will see a high of 77 with winds from the south at 11-14 mph.
Monday night: Patchy fog and periods of rain, which may be heavy at times. We will see a low of 55 with winds shifting to the north-northwest at 8-11 mph.
Tuesday: Morning showers diminishing and ending by mid-morning. Sunshine is expected in the afternoon with a high of 69.
Tuesday night: Clear skies with a low of 47.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a high of 65.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy skies with a low of 45.
Thursday: Becoming overcast with showers developing by the evening. Highs 63-66, lows 46-49.
Friday: Showers/periods of rain. Highs 65-68, lows 46-49.
Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 68-71, lows 47-50.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 65-68, lows 46-49.