Forecast discussion: High pressure to our north brought some drier air over Providence today, which helped make most of Saturday precipitation free. There were a few passing showers earlier in the morning, but then we saw a mix of clouds and sunshine for the rest of the day. However, a frontal boundary to our south will remain stationary for another day, before we see warmer temperatures on Monday.
Now, due to this frontal boundary to our south, we may see a passing shower or two this evening, and into Sunday. We will continue to see scattered showers going into Monday. However, the boundary will become a warm front, allowing for more tropical air to move into Southern New England. Our high temperatures will rise into the middle 70’s for Monday, before we see a cold front pass through the area Monday evening.
Along with this front could be some heavy precipitation. Over the last few days, computer models have been seeing the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen move into the Northeast U.S. However, the newest forecast track for Karen may keep the low far away from the region. Now, it appears that a high pressure system that will move over New England on Tuesday will keep the low down near the Delmarva Peninsula for the rest of the week. For now, I have taken any heavy rainfall out of Monday night’s forecast, but will keep it for Tuesday morning. However, if the European and American models keep the tropical moisture away from us, I will lower the rainfall amounts for Tuesday morning.
A strong high pressure system will move over New England and become stationary after Tuesday afternoon. We will keep dry weather for the rest of the week, with temperatures becoming seasonable for the first full week of October.
As of 8 p.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Karen was centered at 28.1N 91.7W, or about 115 miles southwest of Morgan City, LA. Maximum sustained winds are at 40 mph, and is currently stationary. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle to the mouth of the Pearl River. The system will move over the Mississippi Delta by Sunday afternoon, before moving east-northeast and weaken as a remnant low over the Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon. The rest of Karen may bring some heavier precipitation to us Tuesday, but right now it appears most of that tropical moisture will remain to our south.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Cloudy with scattered showers with a low of 54.
Sunday: Overcast skies with isolated showers and drizzle, especially in the afternoon, with a high of 63. Winds will come from the east-southeast at 8-11 mph.
Sunday night: Scattered showers and drizzle with a low of 58. Winds will come from the southeast at 6-9 mph.
Monday: Overcast with showers by the late afternoon with a high of 75.
Monday night: Showers with periods of rain, which may be heavy at times. We will see a low of 59.
Tuesday: Periods of rain in the morning, before ending by noon. We will see some partial sunshine in the afternoon with a high of 71.
Tuesday night: Clear skies with a low of 52.
Extended forecast:
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-69, lows 48-51.
Thursday: Sunny. Highs 66-69, lows 48-51.
Friday: Sunny. Highs 67-70, lows 48-51.
Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 66-69, lows 47-50.
