Forecast discussion: A frontal boundary to our south helped to bring some much needed precipitation to Providence, and the rest of Rhode Island, earlier on Friday. This boundary will push off to our north over the next few days, but we may still see a stray shower or two over the weekend. However, the precipitation will be off and on, so any outdoor plans this weekend do not have to be cancelled.
However, we will see the chance of some heavier precipitation once we move into early next week. Tropical Storm Karen, now moving towards the Gulf coast, will be a remnant low by Sunday evening. The computer models continue to suggest that the moisture and rainfall will get caught in the cold front that will be over the east coast Monday afternoon. The moisture will ride along the front towards New England, and we could see period of heavy rain Monday night into Tuesday. Precipitation will diminish by the afternoon, before a strong high pressure system helps push the precipitation out to sea by Tuesday evening.
The rest of the week looks dry, with temperatures becoming seasonable for the second week of October. High temperatures will reach the upper 60’s to lower 70’s, with nights in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Karen continues to make her way closer to the Gulf coastline. As of 8 p.m. EDT, Karen was centered at 25.9N 90.3W, or about 235 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds were at 50 mph, and is stationary. New Orleans is under a Tropical Storm Watch at the moment, with Morgan City under a Tropical Storm Warning. Thanks to dry air and some moderate wind shear, Karen will not strengthen for the next 24 hours. It will strengthen slightly thanks to some warmer ocean waters, but will be too close to land for further development. Right now, the forecast track has Karen making landfall Sunday afternoon, near the Peninsula. It will weaken to a depression as it moves over Georgia. The rest of Karen will try to make its way into Rhode Island Monday night.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Cloudy with a possible shower and a low of 54.
Saturday: Cloudy with peeks of sunshine at times. A widely isolated shower remains possible through the day. We will see a high of 70 with winds shifting to the southeast at 4-7 mph.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with some patchy fog and a low of 55. Winds will be easterly at 2-5 mph.
Sunday: Overcast skies with isolated showers and drizzle and a high of 69.
Sunday night: Showers and periods of rain by the early morning with a low of 60.
Monday: Overcast with showers and periods of rain by the early morning with a high of 71.
Monday night: Periods of rain, which may be heavy at times. We will see a low of 59.
Tuesday: Periods of rain in the morning, diminishing to showers in the afternoon. Showers end by the early evening. Highs 70-73, lows 50-53.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-70, lows 48-51.
Thursday: Sunny. Highs 68-71, lows 48-51.
Friday: Sunny. Highs 69-72, lows 48-51.