Forecast discussion: High pressure now over South Carolina has been giving Providence dry weather for the last few days. However, we will begin to lose the influence from this high, as a frontal boundary makes its way towards New England. We may even see some heavier rainfall early next week, thanks to the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen.
Right now, a frontal boundary moving into the Mid-Atlantic is starting to bring some high level clouds over Rhode Island. We will see more low level clouds by early Friday morning, in advance of some possible drizzle and scattered showers along the boundary. The precipitation will be off and on, but it will linger into Saturday morning. By then, we will see some drier air move in, but we will remain with overcast skies into Saturday night.
The computer models have been bringing the frontal boundary further north over the last few days, so we will see cloudy skies on Sunday, but there may be a small chance of a passing shower or two during the afternoon. The cold front I have been mentioning the last few days appears to be moving through the area on Monday. So, we will see showers and some isolated periods of rain by early Monday morning. We will see showers and periods of rain throughout the day, but I am expecting the heaviest rainfall to arrive Monday night into Tuesday morning. Right now, the computer models suggest that the future remnants of Tropical Storm Karen will pass over Southern New England early Tuesday morning. Skies will slowly clear by Tuesday afternoon, before a strong high pressure system brings back sunny skies for Wednesday and Thursday.
Meanwhile, we now have two named tropical systems in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression Jerry was centered at 31N 40.2W as of 11 a.m. EDT. This would put Jerry 890 miles west-southwest of the Azores. Maximum sustained winds are at 35 mph, and is moving northeast at 12 mph. the forecast is for Jerry to move north-northeast to north-east over the next 72 hours, and slowly dissipate to a remnant low. It poses no threat to any mainland or island.
Closer to home, Invest 97-L has become Tropical Storm Karen. Karen was centered at 22.9N 88.2W as of 2 p.m. EDT, or about 430 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds are at 65 mph around the center, and is moving north-northwest at 12 mph. With the warmer waters in the Gulf, Karen will become a minimal hurricane by Friday night. A Hurricane Watch is in effect right now from Grand Isle, LA to Indian Pass, FL. The system will make landfall west of the Florida Peninsula early Sunday morning. The remnants of this system will bring possible heavy rainfall to our area by Monday night.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Increasing clouds after 1 a.m. with a low of 55.
Friday: Overcast by morning with scattered showers and drizzle developing by the early afternoon. We will see a high of 75 with east-northeast winds at 4-7 mph.
Friday night: Scattered drizzle and showers with a low of 56. Winds will come from the east at 2-5 mph.
Saturday: Morning showers and drizzle end by the morning, becoming partly sunny by the late afternoon. We will see a high of 72.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 56.
Sunday: Overcast skies with possible drizzle and a widely isolated shower during the afternoon only and a high of 73.
Sunday night: Showers and periods of rain by the early morning with a low of 60.
Monday: Overcast with showers and periods of rain by the early morning. Highs 71-74, lows 57-60.
Tuesday: Periods of rain in the morning, diminishing to showers in the afternoon. Showers end by the early evening. Highs 70-73, lows 53-56.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 69-72, lows 49-52.
Thursday: Sunny. Highs 70-73, lows 50-53.