Forecast discussion: A weak cold front is just now moving into western New York, which will bring overcast skies with the chance for some drizzle and isolated showers. Any showers will end by mid-morning, with partly to sunny skies by the afternoon. Winds will be breezy during the afternoon, but will diminish by the evening. Temperatures will also be colder, thanks to radiational cooling.
We will see colder weather for the next few days, as high pressure and colder air from Canada stays over New England. The weather gets a little unsettled as we head towards the end of the week. However, whether it dampens our trick-or-treaters on Halloween night remains to be seen at this time.
The American model has been very consistent bringing a warm front over Southern New England, helping to raise our temperatures to the upper 50’s to as high as the middle 60’s by Friday. However, this front will cause the risk of showers all day on Thursday, and continuing into the evening. We would see some heavier precipitation once a cold front passes through early Friday morning.
The European model has been quite different. It keeps the high pressure system that will control our weather through Wednesday closer to the east coast. This would keep the storm system to our west, allowing us to remain dry during the daytime on Thursday. It appears it would keep things dry in time for the young ghosts and ghouls to get their candy before midnight. The cold front will then pass through the area late Friday night.
The United Kingdom model appears to be agreeing more with the American model, bringing the warm front into the area during Thursday afternoon. For now, I will stay between the models’ forecasts, bringing the rain during the late evening on Thursday. Finally, the Canadian model is also seeing rain on Friday. So, I may change the forecast tomorrow night, if I see more consistency in the other models, despite what the American model is forecasting.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Cloudy with drizzle and isolated showers with a low of 42. Winds may gust up to 25 mph at Block Island.
Sunday: Drizzle/showers end by mid-morning with partly to mostly sunny skies the rest of the day. We will see a high of 55 with west-northwest winds at 10-13 mph.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 36. Winds will come from the west at 5-8 mph.
Monday: Partly sunny with a high of 58.
Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a low of 34.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and cooler with a high of 50.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 37.
Wednesday: A sunny morning with increasing clouds by mid-afternoon. Highs 52-55, lows 39-42.
Halloween: Mostly cloudy with rain arriving around midnight. Highs 57-60, lows 47-50.
Friday: Showers/rain end before dawn, becoming mostly sunny. Highs 63-66, lows 46-49.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs 60-63, lows 44-47.