Forecast discussion: A strong high pressure system over the Southeast U.S. is helping to bring warmer air up into the Northeast U.S. Our temperatures today in Providence reached the middle 70’s, which is certainly not October weather. This is about 10 degrees above normal. The above normal temperatures will continue until the end of the week.
The high will control our weather for the next few days. Today will be the warmest day of the week, as I am expecting highs to reach the lower 80’s in the capital city. By tomorrow, temperatures will cool slightly, but highs on Thursday will still be in the upper 70’s. Despite some cloud cover and some showers expected on Friday, we will still have high temperatures in the middle 70’s.
What will cause the cloud cover on Friday will be an extended frontal boundary, which will bring clouds early Friday morning, along with some showers arriving by the middle of the afternoon. It appears the precipitation will end by mid-morning on Saturday, with a new high pressure ridge brining partial sunshine throughout the afternoon.
By Saturday night, a cold front will move into the Mid-Atlantic, with some showers arriving by the late morning on Sunday. This cold front will be slowly moving east. We may see some heavier rainfall on Monday night into Tuesday, based on the computer models bringing a possible tropical system into the front once the system makes landfall. Temperatures will cool to seasonable conditions by early next week, with highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.
The tropics have become a little more active over the last few days. Right now, Tropical Storm Jerry is in the Atlantic, and an invest area is being watched in the Caribbean. As of 5 p.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Jerry was centered at 28.1N 43.5W, or about 1300 miles east of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are at 45 mph, and the system is stationary. Jerry is forecast to slowly move to the northwest, before turning more to the northeast within 48 hours. Jerry will maintain his intensity over the next 4 days, before gradually weakening. Jerry is no threat to any land or islands at this time.
The invest area being watched in the Caribbean. The area is being called Invest 97-L, and will move northwest into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico. There is a 50 percent chance this system will become a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Clear skies and warmer with a low of 57.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and very mild with a high of 82. Winds will come from the west at 10-13 mph.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 56. Winds will come from the northwest at 4-7 mph.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with a high of 78.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a low of 55.
Friday: Overcast by mid-morning with showers developing by mid-afternoon. We will see a high of 75.
Friday night: Early morning showers give way to clearing skies with a low of 58.
Saturday: Morning showers give way to partly sunny skies by the afternoon. Highs 72-75, lows 55-58.
Sunday: Becoming overcast with showers arriving in the late morning. Highs 72-75, lows 55-58.
Monday: Overcast with scattered showers. Highs 70-73, lows 53-56.
Tuesday: Overcast with showers and periods of rain. Highs 69-72, lows 54-57.