Forecast discussion: A strong Nor’easter is centered over the Delmarva Peninsula at the moment, and his given Rhode Island strong wind gusts, especially offshore. Right now, precipitation seems to be stationary, as it tries to make its way into New York City. We will see a little more precipitation this evening, before a change over for tomorrow night. At this time, northwestern Rhode Island is under a Winter Storm Warning from the National Weather Service from now until 7 a.m. Friday morning. The rest of the state is under a Winter Weather Advisory. Also, a Wind Advisory is in effect for the state, while Block Island is under a Wind Warning.
At this time, I’m expecting any rainfall to change over to wet snow, especially north and west of Providence. The capital city will see a mix of wet snow, sleet, and rain. The immediate south shore will see just rain. However, the coastline will see the strongest wind gusts, coming from the north-northeast. There might be a little bit of coastal flooding, as we are expecting two high tides within a 14 hour period.
As we go into tomorrow, I feel north and west of Providence will remain wet snow. Through the day, the atmosphere will slowly grow colder, allowing for snow to develop further south. By tomorrow night, I expect to see most of Rhode Island see wet snow into early Friday afternoon. Winds will remain strong, before slowly diminishing early Friday morning. So, what do I expect for final snowfall totals?
After looking over the latest computer models, I am going to stick with what I said in last night’s forecast. I will call for 6-9 inches north and west of Providence. From Providence down to about 15 miles from the coastline, I am looking at 4-6 inches. Finally, for the immediate south shore, I see 2-4 inches. Again, I feel we will see most of our snowfall during Thursday into Thursday night.
By Friday afternoon, we will see some leftover snow showers, before the low finally takes the precipitation shield out to sea. We will see a quiet weekend, with partly to mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the lower 40’s. As we head into next week, an upper level ridge will move over the eastern U.S. This ridge will help bring some warmer air into Southern New England, helping to bring high temperatures up into the upper 40’s by Monday.
The next chance for some precipitation will be Tuesday. A cold front will slide through the Northeast U.S., and will bring all rain this time. We will see some heavy rain at times into early Wednesday morning, before the precipitation begins to taper off.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Showers before midnight, changing over to wet snow north and west of Providence by about 2 a.m. South of Providence will see a mix of rain and snow, staying all rain along the immediate coastline. It will be windy with gusts of 35-40 mph, especially along the coastline. I’m expecting a low near 33.
Thursday: Light to moderate snow north and west of Providence, with a mix of wet snow, sleet, and rain in the Providence metro area down to about 15 miles from the coastline. I am forecasting more rain, mixing with a little wet snow at the coastline. We will see a high of 37, with winds north-northeast 22-27 mph, with gusts up to 40-45 mph at times. The south shore will see gusts as high as 55-60 mph.
Thursday night: The whole state changes over to wet snow, with a low of 31. Winds will diminish slightly in Providence to a north direction at 17-22 mph with gusts of 35 mph. Winds will remain around 30-35 mph with gusts of 55 mph along the south shore.
Friday: Light snow tapering to snow showers by the afternoon with diminishing winds. We will see a high of 40.
Friday night: Precipitation ends by the end of the evening commute. Partly to mostly cloudy skies expected after midnight with a low of 29.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny with a high of 43.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 29.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 44-47, lows 32-35.
Monday: Mostly sunny during the day, with increasing clouds by the late afternoon. Highs 47-50, lows 35-38.
Tuesday: Showers developing after midnight, with heavier rain developing during the evening. Highs 48-51, lows 32-35.
Wednesday: Heavy rain around midnight, tapering a few hours later, before ending before dawn. Partly sunny skies expected for the rest of the day. Highs 42-45, lows 30-33.