Forecast discussion: A weak disturbance passed through Southern New England a few hours ago, helping to produce some flurries and showers in Boston and into northern Rhode Island. We will continue to see little disturbances pass over us into tomorrow night. Then, a strong coastal storm will bring some wintry precipitation to part of the state over the next couple of days.
The disturbances are due to an upper level low that is over Northern New England. This low will begin to move west, so the chance for some precipitation will slightly lower. Temperatures will remain seasonable, as they reach the lower 40’s. We will continue to see cloudy skies Tuesday night, before we begin to feel the effects of a strong low pressure system.
Currently, that low is centered over western Arkansas. The low will continue to move eastward, and be off the coast of South Carolina by early Wednesday morning. The computer models continue to agree that the low will not move towards New England. However, the American model does move the low slightly north then the other models. This means the model is predicting more precipitation for us from this system. The European model, on the other hand, keeps the low moving slowly east, so we do not see as much precipitation from this system.
At this time, I feel I am going to agree with the European model with the low’s movement. However, I feel the precipitation amounts will not be as dry as the European. But, I do not think it will be as much as the American model. So, I am going to go in between the precipitation amounts. Also, I feel northwest Rhode Island will see a little bit of light snow by Wednesday night. The rest of the state will see either rain or a mix of snow, sleet, and rain. I do not expect significant snowfall totals, because the ground has been relatively warm the last few weeks since the blizzard.
I feel the area seeing the worst from this storm will be the south coast. They will be hit with strong winds, as well as some minor coastal flooding. The flooding will be due by the combination of the precipitation amounts and seeing some high tides Wednesday night into Thursday. A Wind and Coastal Flood Advisory may be put in effect for this part of the state by Wednesday.
The low will slowly move out to sea, and precipitation will taper off by late Friday morning. We may even see some sunshine before sunset. As for the weekend, we will “spring ahead” back to Daylight Savings Time Sunday morning at 2:00 AM. I’m expecting mostly sunny skies by Sunday, with high temperatures rising into the middle 40’s.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a sprinkle or flurry and a low of 28.
Tuesday: Some sunshine in the morning, with mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon and some possible drizzle or flurries and a high of 44. Winds will come from the north-northwest at 9-12 mph.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 33. Winds will come from the northeast at 8-12 mph.
Wednesday: Cloudy and windy with showers by the afternoon, with a mix of rain and wet snow north and west of Providence. We will see a high of 42.
Wednesday night: Very windy with a mix of rain, sleet, and snow north and west of Providence. Light snow is expected in northwest Rhode Island. I’m forecasting a low of 32.
Thursday: Windy with the wintry mix becoming rain by late morning. We will see a high of 38.
Thursday night: Rain showers with a low of 33.
Friday: Showers ending by the early afternoon, with partial sunshine before sunset. Highs 42-45, lows 31-34.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs 43-46, lows 29-32.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 44-47, lows 31-34.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-48, lows 33-36.