Forecast discussion: A low pressure system offshore of Long Island, NY is bringing light to moderate snow to the state of Rhode Island. However, unlike previous winter storms, the most snowfall will actually be along the eastern part of the state.
Due to the location and movement of the low, the heaviest snowfall will be falling along eastern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. In fact, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Bristol and Newport Counties until 4 a.m. Friday morning. The biggest problem with this system is possible snow bands training over the same area. In other words, periods of snow bursts would stay over the same isolated areas over the next several hours. Although eastern Rhode Island is expected to see about one to three inches, some isolated areas may see four to five inches. For the northwest part of the state and the capital city, it will actually see less snow, with just a dusting to an inch. From Bristol down to Newport, I’m only expecting 1-3 inches.
The system will move into the Atlantic by tomorrow morning. We will see some slow clearing in the morning, with mostly sunny skies by the late afternoon. High pressure will give us dry weather for the entire weekend, with temperatures slowly climbing towards the middle 40’s. However, the temperatures are still below normal for this time of the year. Looking at the latest long range models, the temperatures will remain below normal for the rest of the month.
As we look to Monday, the computer models are beginning to agree that a coastal low will be moving out to sea. For now, I will keep the possibility of rain mixing with some wet snow by Monday afternoon. However, I am beginning to get my confidence level up to fair that I will be taking out all precipitation by tomorrow night’s forecast.
The remainder of the forecast calls for partly to mostly sunny skies, with temperatures remaining pretty uniform. There might be a slight chance at some showers on Thursday, as some moisture remaining near the eastern Great Lakes needs an upper level disturbance to help bring some showers over the state.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Light snow for northern and central Rhode Island, with moderate snow near the coastline. We will see a low of 26.
Friday: Snow tapering to flurries by mid-morning north and west, and around noon along the coastline. We will see 1-3 inches in western Rhode Island, with 2-5 inches possible along the coastline and into Bristol County. We will see a high of 40 with west-northwest winds of 12-15 mph.
Friday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 27. Winds will come from the west-northwest at 8-11 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 43.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 28.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny with a high of 44.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 31.
Monday: Cloudy and breezy with possible rain mixing with wet snow by the afternoon. Highs 41-44, lows 29-32.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-45, lows 30-33.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-45, lows 29-32.
Thursday: Partly sunny. Highs 42-45, lows 30-33.