Forecast discussion: Last week, I had mentioned a low pressure system moving well offshore of Providence for this evening. Well, although the low is into the Atlantic, the precipitation shield remained over the southern U.S. This system has brought freezing rain, sleet, rain, and snow to the Southeast U.S., and now we will be seeing a little from it as well.
Block Island is under a Winter Weather Advisory for this evening until 1 p.m. Wednesday. For Providence, we will be seeing some light snow fall after midnight. As the low continues to move into the Atlantic, the precipitation will leave the capital city by mid-morning. The south coast will see its last flakes by the early afternoon. I am only expecting a coating to an inch for the capital city, with one to three inches possible for the south coast.
High pressure will keep us dry into Wednesday night, and winds will turn to the west-southwest. This will allow for warmer air to filter back towards the north. By Thursday, temperatures will be near freezing. A weak cold front passing over us will bring clouds ahead of it Thursday night, allowing temperatures to be 10 degrees warmer. As the front passes Friday afternoon, we will see the risk of seeing some rain and/or snow showers. However, all precipitation will be over by the early evening.
Warmer air will remain over us over the weekend. A warm front may move into New England by Saturday night, helping to bring rain showers throughout Sunday. A high pressure system will help bring cooler temperatures on Monday. As we look into next week, the American model is showing a Nor’easter type low forming off the coast of North Carolina. However, no other model shows it forming in this area. In fact, the other models form the low further southwest. It also keeps precipitation away from New England until early Wednesday morning. Right now, my confidence for next Wednesday’s forecast is very low, as no other model is showing any type of continuity with the American model at this time.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Light snow starting along the south coast by 11 p.m. and working northward. We will see a low of 12.
Wednesday: Light snow ends in Providence by 10 a.m. and off the south coast by 1 p.m. A dusting to an inch is possible, while the south coast sees 1-3 inches. Mostly sunny skies expected during the afternoon. We will see a high of 25 with west-northwest winds of 9-12 mph.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 12. Winds will come from the west-southwest at 6-9 mph.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and warmer with a high of 31.
Thursday night: Increasing clouds and warmer with a low of 22.
Friday: Overcast with a mix of rain and snow showers by the afternoon and a high of 37.
Friday night: Snow showers end by 8 p.m. with partly cloudy skies and a low of 25.
Saturday: Rain showers by the early evening. Highs 38-41, lows 32-35.
Sunday: Scattered showers ending by 5 p.m. Highs 38-41, lows 21-24.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-33, lows 20-23.
Tuesday: Partly sunny in the day, overcast skies with possible showers before midnight. Highs 32-35, lows 30-33.