Forecast discussion: High pressure over Virginia gave us another nice day, with temperatures actually making it to freezing at T.F. Green Airport in Warwick. The good news is we will finally see high temperatures go above freezing on Monday. But, we will see a mixed bag of wintry weather into Tuesday. In fact, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for northern Rhode Island from 1 p.m. Monday until 6 a.m. Tuesday morning.
A low pressure system in northwest Arkansas has some precipitation well ahead of it. It is now snowing in Michigan, with freezing rain and sleet in western Pennsylvania. This precipitation will arrive in the form of snow by Monday afternoon. As we move through the afternoon, the precipitation will change over to freezing rain and sleet by the start of the evening commute. We may see 1-2 inches on the ground before the changeover. As we progress into Monday night, slightly warmer air in the upper atmosphere will help change the precipitation to just rain showers. We may see some drizzle early Tuesday morning, but we will remain mostly cloudy. Also, a warm front will stay to our south, and will bring well above normal temperatures for Wednesday. In fact, some parts of Rhode Island will reach 60 degrees!
However, this fairy tale of spring weather will end just as fast as it began by Thursday. The cold front associated with the low will move through the east coast. This cold front will bring some pretty good rainfall to the area, before arctic air behind the front once again infiltrates the state. By Friday, we will return to temperatures below freezing. On Friday, a weak area of low pressure may help trigger some snow showers in the afternoon. High pressure gives us dry weather for Saturday, before an Alberta Clipper type system passes through Rhode Island next Sunday. We may see some snow showers starting up Sunday morning.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy with a low of 12.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with snow first in the early afternoon, before changing to sleet and freezing rain just after the evening commute. I’m expecting a high of 34, with southwest winds at 6-9 mph.
Monday night: Sleet and freezing rain changing to rain near midnight with a low of 31. Winds will come from the west-southwest at 5-8 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and milder with a high of 44.
Tuesday night: Some possible evening rain showers and patchy fog with a low of 37.
Wednesday: Scattered showers and a high of 57.
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy with showers developing and a low of 41.
Thursday: Light to moderate rain ending in the afternoon. Highs 42-45, lows 22-25.
Friday: Partly sunny with possible afternoon snow showers. Highs 31-34, lows 15-18.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny and colder at night. Highs 29-32, lows 17-20.
Sunday: Light snow showers by the morning. Highs 30-33, lows 17-20.