Forecast discussion: A very strong high pressure system continues to bring chilly temperatures to Rhode Island. In fact, a Wind Chill Advisory will be in effect for northern Rhode Island tonight until 10 a.m. Friday morning. With winds of ten to fifteen miles per hour tonight, wind chill temperatures will make the air feel like 15 to 20 below zero. This high will slowly move towards the east on Friday, but we will begin to see increasing clouds throughout the day. The moisture will come from a low pressure system moving into western Nebraska.
The low will quickly move through the central U.S. and work its way into the Atlantic Ocean Friday night. This low will bring some light snow to the state late Friday night into mid-morning on Saturday. However, the computer models continue to agree that the low will not intensify and strengthen until it reaches the Atlantic. Also, the models keep the low further south than their previous runs have been thinking the last few days. With these factors taken into effect, I see northwestern Rhode Island seeing a dusting to an inch, with the rest of the state seeing about one to two inches.
After the low passes, we will see one more night of very cold temperatures Saturday night. As we go into next week, an upper level ridge will slowly build over the region. This will help bring back warmer air from the south, and help us return to normal temperatures for this time of the year. We may see a few snow showers Monday evening, as an Alberta Clipper system passes over Southern New England. By Tuesday, a stronger low pressure system moving into the central U.S. will bring a warm front into the area. Despite seeing some snow showers Tuesday night, the precipitation will change to rain by Wednesday morning. High temperatures on Wednesday will actually be about seven to ten degrees above normal.
However, the models begin to diverge from each other as we reach next Thursday. One model sees a second low developing along a cold front, moving through New England. It would bring heavy rain to the area. The other models already have the front well offshore. So, I am going to split it down the middle, with cloudy skies and possible showers by the late afternoon. But, my confidence after Monday’s forecast is very low, due to the different model solutions.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Partly cloudy and breezy cold with the low falling to 3 degrees.
Friday: Increasing clouds through the day and warmer with a high of 24. Winds will come from the north-northwest at 5-8 mph.
Friday night: Light snow developing around 10 p.m. with a low of 15. Winds will come from the north-northwest at 5-8 mph.
Saturday: Breezy, with light snow tapering off by mid-morning. We will see a high of 26. I’m only expecting a dusting to an inch for northwest Rhode Island, and 1-2 inches for the rest of the state.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 11.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with diminishing winds and a high of 29.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 15.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with snow showers in the evening. Highs 37-40, lows 22-25.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with possible evening snow showers. Highs 40-43, lows 31-34.
Wednesday: Precipitation changing to rain showers in the morning. Highs 45-48, lows 30-33.
Thursday: Cloudy with possible showers. Highs 40-43, lows 32-35.