Forecast discussion: A warm front from the west has moved into northern Vermont Saturday afternoon. This system has also brought a lot of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico along with it. A line of showers along a cold front extends from New York down through the Virginias, the Carolinas, and the Florida Panhandle. We will be seeing heavier rain and winds within the next few hours. In fact, I just heard a rumble of thunder at 3:35 p.m. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Rhode Island from 4 p.m. until midnight tonight.
The heavy rain may be windswept at times, so please take precaution if you have to drive tonight. Some areas may have patchy to dense fog as well. The rain will eventually taper to showers during the overnight. Some areas will see an inch to an inch and a half of rainfall. Some isolated areas may see two inches. High pressure will build in by Sunday morning, but the quickness of our air pressure rising will make for windy conditions in the afternoon. Winds will diminish by Sunday evening. It will be warmer on Monday, with mostly sunny conditions, and temperatures near 50 degrees.
By Tuesday, more wet weather is on the way. A quick moving low pressure system over central Canada will bring morning showers, before ending in the mid-afternoon. However, the computer models continue to disagree on Wednesday’s forecast. The American and European models are becoming aligned better, seeing a secondary low behind Tuesday’s system, and then moving offshore along the New Jersey coastline. Rain showers will eventually turn over to snow showers, as colder air begins to move back into New England. The United Kingdom model keeps two systems affecting us, one over the Ohio River Valley, and another off the Carolina coastline. I am beginning to believe more in the American model, as it has the best consistency from model run to model run. My overall confidence at the moment for Wednesday’s forecast is fair. I would like to see the United Kingdom model become more in phase with the other models to increase my confidence level.
A weak high pressure ridge will bring sunny skies again on Thursday, but a quick moving low pressure system will bring some more snow showers for Friday. By Friday night, a frigid Arctic cold front will reach New England, and return us to below normal temperatures. However, it will not be as frigid as last week’s temperatures.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Moderate to heavy rain, strong winds, and patchy fog. A passing thunderstorm is possible. Wind speeds around 25-30 mph with gusts of 45-50 mph at times. We will see a low of 42. Rain tapers to showers around 4 a.m.
Sunday: Showers end by dawn, with partly to mostly sunny skies expected by the late morning. It will remain breezy with a high of 46. Winds will come from the west-northwest at 15-20 mph.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 30. Winds will come from the west-southwest and diminish to 4-7 mph.
Monday: Mostly sunny with a high of 51.
Monday night: Becoming mostly cloudy with showers developing after 2 a.m. and a low of 40.
Tuesday: Cloudy with scattered showers by the morning, but ending by the mid-afternoon. We will see a high of 48.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy and colder with a low of 34.
Wednesday: Cloudy with showers in the morning slowly changing to snow showers by the mid-afternoon. Highs 39-42, lows 25-28.
Thursday: Snow showers end by 3 a.m. with mostly sunny skies by the late morning. Highs 33-36, lows 24-27.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with possible snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 37-40, lows 17-20.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 29-32, lows 15-18.