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Providence weather forecast for Jan. 11, 2014

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Forecast discussion: After some snow showers left from a half inch to an inch of snow Friday morning, Providence received something it has not seen since Monday afternoon. Temperatures went above freezing, as the high temperature at T.F. Green Airport was 33 degrees. We will see light showers this evening, with it increasing to light rain during the overnight. Temperatures will actually rise as we head towards dawn into the lower 40’s.

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The warmer temperatures are due to a warm front working its way into the Ohio River Valley at the moment. Warmer air will help bring temperatures to spring like conditions, as we are expecting highs in the middle 50’s. But, we will also be seeing winds increasing throughout the day. In fact, a Wind Advisory is in effect for Rhode Island from 4 p.m. to 11 p.m. on Saturday. Finally, the precipitation becomes heavier by the late afternoon. There is a great deal of moisture with this system. The energy from a disturbance over the Southeast U.S. caused Boynton Beach, FL to receive almost 18 inches of rain Thursday night into early Friday morning. This will cause the rain to come down sideways at times, so please take precaution if you have to drive during this time.

We may see up to 2 inches of rainfall by the time the cold front moves through, which will be early Sunday morning. Winds will diminish through the night, but we will still feel a stiff breeze. However, high pressure will bring mostly sunny conditions by the late morning, with temperatures still above normal, as I am expecting the middle 40’s. Temperatures will fall to freezing Sunday night, so please be wary of some possible black ice for the Monday morning commute.
We will see dry weather for Monday, with some scattered showers Tuesday morning, due to a quick moving low pressure system. The showers should end by the mid-afternoon, but we will remain mostly cloudy Tuesday night. As we go into Wednesday, the computer models are still disagreeing on how to handle a developing area of low pressure.

The American model develops the low over Ohio, and slowly moves east. Once it moves over the Mid-Atlantic, some upper level dynamics helps to strengthen the low. We would see a steady mix of rain and snow showers until the evening commute, before converting to all light snow. The European model keeps the low well offshore, bringing the chance of some snow showers for Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. The European model keeps the low well west of us, and over the eastern Great Lakes Thursday morning. For now, the American model has kept the most consistency from model run to model run. However, my overall confidence remains low. Even though a model is consistent, it could still be wrong.

The models do come to a general agreement that drier weather arrives by Thursday afternoon, giving us partly to mostly sunny skies and seasonable conditions for the middle of January.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Light showers turning to light rain by 3 a.m. We will see a low of 36 as temperatures rise during the overnight.
Saturday: Overcast with showers increasing to moderate rain by the afternoon. We will see a high of 56 with winds increasing from the south at 22-27 mph with gusts of 40-45 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday night: Heavy rain and windy before midnight, before tapering to showers by 3 a.m. We will see a low of 42 with west-southwest winds diminishing to 11-14 mph. Patchy fog may develop after 3 a.m.
Sunday: Showers end by dawn, with partly to mostly sunny skies expected by the late morning. We will see a high of 46.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 32.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny with a high of 49.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 38.

Extended Forecast:
Tuesday: Cloudy with scattered showers by the morning, but ending by the mid-afternoon. Highs 47-50, lows 31-34.
Wednesday: Cloudy with rain showers in the morning slowly changing to a snow/rain mix by the mid-afternoon. Highs 40-43, lows 25-28.
Thursday: Snow showers end by 7 a.m. with partly to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. Highs 35-38, lows 23-26.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 37-40, lows 20-23.

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