Forecast discussion: The low pressure system that brought about 0.60 inches of rain to Providence last night is over northern Maine. With high pressure trying to build in, we will keep a strong northwest breeze into tonight and Thursday. Winds will begin to diminish tomorrow night, as high pressure moves closer towards New England. The high will continue to influence our weather on Friday, with temperatures warming up into the upper 30’s.
However, as we look into the weekend, it appears that we will see a third storm system to hit the models are seeing a developing low over the Southeast U.S. on Friday, slowly working its way towards the Mid-Atlantic early Saturday afternoon. We will begin to see some precipitation by late Saturday afternoon. At this time, it appears we could see rain along the coastline, and a wintry mix of rain and snow in Providence. The region north and west of Providence may remain cold enough to see precipitation start as snow.
As we move into Saturday night, the wintry mix and rain will eventually turn to all snow. Also, the American model is pushing a lot of precipitation during the overnight hours Saturday into Sunday morning. We may even see snowfall amounts of an inch and a half to two inches a hour during this time period. The snow will weaken by Sunday afternoon to light snow, before tapering to flurries Sunday night.
Now, this is the worst case scenario I am mentioning at this time. There is still the chance the rain-snow line stays further west, meaning we would see a wintry mix instead. This would lower the snowfall totals, but would make for some poor driving conditions. Again, I still have three days to continue watching the models, but I will keep you updated on the latest model forecasts.
After we got through the weekend, Monday will bring mostly sunny skies to help cleanup and shovel any snowfall away. By Tuesday, another storm system forming in the Southeast U.S. will work into the region. However, there will be too much warm air following this low, so the precipitation will be mostly rain. However, colder air from behind a cold front could turn the precipitation into some snow showers by Wednesday afternoon. The American and European models are agreeing on this scenario, despite being six days away from this forecast period.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Partly cloudy and breezy with a low of 19.
Thursday: Partly sunny with a high of 34. Winds will come from the northwest at 15-18 mph.
Thursday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a low of 23. Winds will come from the north-northwest at 8-11 mph.
Friday: Mostly sunny with a high of 39.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of 27.
Saturday: Cloudy with a light snow/rain mix by the late afternoon and a high of 39.
Saturday night: Rain changing to snow showers with a low of 32.
Sunday: Moderate to heavy snow in the morning, with lighter snow during the afternoon, and snow ending by the evening. Highs 33-36, lows 24-27.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-42, lows 23-26.
Tuesday: Turning cloudy with showers starting in the evening. Highs 40-43, lows 30-33.
Wednesday: Heavy rain during the morning, changing to snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 39-42, lows 31-34.