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Providence weather forecast for Dec. 17, 2013

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Forecast discussion: After cleaning up mostly slush on Sunday, we will actually be using our shovels on Tuesday to pick up snow. A little Alberta Clipper will bring some snowfall to Providence, especially during Tuesday afternoon. Because of the expected snowfall, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the state from 9 a.m. to 7 p.m. Tuesday.

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Right now, high pressure ridging over Quebec will keep clear skies over Southern New England going into early Tuesday morning. However, moisture from some lake effect snow hitting the western Great Lakes will bring increasing clouds during the morning commute. By the time we arrive at work and school, we will begin to see flurries and light snow. The heavier snowfall will come during the afternoon through part of the evening commute. All snow will end by Tuesday evening. The American model believes two separate systems will bring precipitation, but the other computer models only see one system.

I’m expecting mostly snowfall through the entire state, with some rain mixing in along the extreme south coast. They will see 1-2 inches in southern Bristol and Kent County. Skies will clear during Tuesday night, with dry weather for the next couple of days. Milder air will slowly begin to push into Southern New England, especially on Thursday, as highs will go above freezing. As we head into Friday, temperatures will soar into the middle to upper 40’s on Friday. A new low pressure system will bring rain by late Friday afternoon, and continue into Saturday morning.

The computer models suggest there will be a brief period of the precipitation ending, before the showers return by late Saturday afternoon. We may see heavier rainfall on Sunday, as the low’s center from Texas on Thursday moves just off of Long Island on Sunday. All precipitation will end by Sunday evening.

We will go into the last few days before Christmas returning back to seasonable temperatures, but no snowfall on the ground. The American model wants to develop a coastal low over North Carolina, and bring some more snow on Tuesday, just in time to give us a White Christmas. However, my confidence level is quite low, as this is some 8 days out, and the models are not very accurate during this time period.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Partly cloudy with increasing clouds after 4 a.m. and a low of 13.
Tuesday: Overcast with light snow by mid-morning. Moderate snow starts before lunchtime. I’m expecting a high of 28 with northeast winds of 5-8 mph.
Tuesday night: Light snow by 4 p.m. with all snow ending by 8 p.m. We will see a low of 22. Winds will be increasing at dawn to west-northwest winds of 9-13 mph. Most of Rhode Island will see 2-4 inches, with the extreme south and east coast seeing 1-2 inches.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a high of 33.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 23.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with a high of 38.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy with some increasing clouds by dawn and a low of 30.

Extended Forecast:
Friday: Overcast and milder with rain showers by the late afternoon. Highs 46-49, lows 36-39.
Saturday: Rain/showers ending by the early morning, but remaining cloudy with showers returning by the late afternoon. Highs 41-44, lows 30-33.
Sunday: Rain/showers ending by the late evening. Highs 48-51, lows 33-36.
Monday: Mostly sunny and colder. Highs 36-39, lows 20-23.

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