Forecast discussion: A weak high pressure ridge kept sunshine over Providence during Friday afternoon. Although there was the chance for some isolated showers, the mostly sunny skies allowed temperatures inland to skyrocket. At T.F. Green Airport in Warwick, the high for the day was 71 degrees. If you were along the coast, southwest winds off the ocean made temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees cooler.
As we move into the overnight, a frontal boundary will bring scattered showers and areas of patchy fog to Rhode Island. The showers will last until the early morning. We will see high pressure build back over the state by Saturday afternoon. This will allow for mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the middle 60’s. It will be a little warmer on Sunday, with highs in the upper 60’s. Overnight lows Sunday night will stay above 50 degrees. It will remain warm on Monday, as some areas may go above 70 degrees once again.
By Monday night, the weather will change, and we will see a drastic change in our temperatures by the middle of the week. A low pressure system forming over the Central U.S. will slowly work its way into New England early Tuesday morning. Colder air behind the cold front associated with this low will meet with the rather warm air. This will create some heavy rainfall on Tuesday, with the chance of some thunderstorms. As the low pressure system moves offshore, the precipitation will taper to showers Tuesday night, before ending early Wednesday morning. But, the high temperatures for the day will be the same as our low temperatures for this weekend.
The high will bring some intense cold air for this time of the year over New England. High temperatures will only be in the lower 50’s, and overnight lows could fall to near freezing. As we move towards the end of the week, a low pressure system forming off the coast of North Carolina could bring some showers up into Southern New England by Friday night. As of now, the American and United Kingdom models keep us dry, but the European models brings precipitation as early as Friday afternoon. For now, I will stay with the American model, as it has been more consistent the last two models runs. However, my confidence in the forecast after Thursday is low, due to the differences in the models.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Cloudy with scattered showers and patchy fog. Showers may end before dawn. We will see a low of 46.
Saturday: Isolated showers until the early morning, with mostly sunny skies by the late morning. We will see a high of 65 with winds turning to the south-southwest at 9-12 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 44. Winds will come from the south-southwest at 4-7 mph.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with a high of 67.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 51.
Monday: Mostly sunny and breezy with some fair weather clouds by the afternoon. It will become quite warm, as I am expecting a high of 69.
Monday night: Cloudy skies with showers developing after midnight and a low of 52.
Tuesday: Rain becoming heavier through the day, tapering to showers in the evening. Highs 61-64, lows 38-41.
Wednesday: Showers end after midnight, with partly cloudy skies. It will become colder. Highs 49-52, lows 33-36.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 49-52, lows 34-37.
Friday: Partly sunny with possible showers by the evening. Highs 52-55, lows 38-41.