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Providence weather: Dry weather in store for Friday

The weather map for 10 a.m. EST for Southern New England on February 7, 2014. Mostly sunny skies are expected.
The weather map for 10 a.m. EST for Southern New England on February 7, 2014. Mostly sunny skies are expected.
www.weather.gov

Forecast discussion: High pressure over the Central U.S. is actually bringing dry weather to most of the country at the moment. The only exception is a weak disturbance giving showers from South Carolina to Florida, and mountain snow over Washington and Oregon.

Low temperature forecast for February 6-7, 2014
www.weather.gov

We will continue to see a reprieve from any more snow in Providence for the next couple of days. This high will control the weather pattern, as temperatures in the day will reach the upper 20’s to near 30 degrees. However, any sunshine that does melt some snow and ice will only refreeze during the overnight, as temperatures fall into the lower teens. Overnight lows will warm to near 20 degrees Saturday night, as increasing clouds create a blanket over us, keeping any of the sun’s energy from escaping back into the atmosphere.

As we go into Sunday, it appears the computer models are coming to a better agreement. A stronger, primary low will remain well offshore. However, a weaker low pressure center will form somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic Saturday afternoon. It will help bring some moisture off the Great Lakes, and we will see light snow showers beginning around 3 a.m. Sunday morning.

Right now, there does not appear to be a lot of moisture with the low, so I am not expecting any high snowfall totals. By Sunday night, there is a chance of seeing about one to three inches in total. The low’s center will then begin to move offshore, with light snow showers through late Monday morning. Flurries will continue in the early afternoon, before all precipitation shuts down. A strong high pressure system will then move over the eastern U.S. But, it will bring Arctic air once again over New England. Despite temperatures in the middle to upper 20’s during the day, overnight lows will fall back into the single digits in northern Rhode Island.

Looking further into the future, the computer models do see a low pressure system developing in the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico on early Wednesday. The low will then move along the eastern shore and up the coast. At this time, the computer models see the precipitation as being a mix of rain and snow showers. However, this is still six days into the future, and I am not confident in any of the computer models at this time. A few models take the low’s center further out to sea, meaning less precipitation. The United Kingdom model keeps it right along the Long Island coast, meaning more snowfall than rain. For now, my confidence in the models after Wednesday night is quite low.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a low of 14.
Friday: Mostly sunny with a high of 29. Winds will come from the west at 9-12 mph.
Friday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 12. Winds will come from the west-southwest at 5-8 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 30.
Saturday night: Increasing clouds with light snow falling by 3 a.m. and a low of 20.
Sunday: Overcast with light snow showers and a high of 32. One to three inches of extra snowfall is possible.
Sunday night: Light snow with a low of 18.

Extended Forecast:
Monday: Light snow possible through the late morning, before ending in the early afternoon. Mostly cloudy skies expected for the rest of the evening. Highs 26-29, lows 9-12.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-25, lows 7-10.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-29, lows 16-19.
Thursday: A mix of snow and rain showers by the late afternoon. Highs 35-38, lows 21-24.