Forecast discussion: A large dome of high pressure to our west helped bring bright sunshine to most of Rhode Island on Friday morning. As the day wore on, the northern part of the state began to see some dark clouds and even a few sprinkles. Meanwhile, the southern half of the state kept bright sunshine. The cloud cover was due to easterly winds coming off the cooler waters. The cooler air met with the warmer air at the surface, and helped create enough instability in our atmosphere to produce the cloud cover. By this evening, as the sun goes down, we lose the daytime heating. The clouds will simply burn away, showing clear skies for tonight.
The high will move a little closer to New England over the weekend. This will allow for us to have bright sunshine and some warmer winds. Temperatures will be seasonable for the middle of July, with highs in the middle 80’s. By Sunday, it will still be dry. However, a slow moving cold front passing into Minnesota right now will begin to give us the risk of some scattered showers Sunday evening.
As we move into early next week, the cold front will meet with a very strong upper level low. The upper low will bring down some very cold air for this time of the season to the Midwest. This cooler air will meet with the warm, humid air we will have over us. This collision of air masses will help create the chance for some strong to possible severe thunderstorms for Tuesday. Again, this is still four days out, so changes might change.
The cold front will linger just offshore for much of Wednesday, giving us scattered showers and thunderstorms until the late afternoon. A new high pressure system will help bring drier air and bright sunshine for Thursday. The high will protect us into next Thursday. However, the cooler air mentioned above will move into New England. High temperatures by the middle of next week will only be in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s during the daytime.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Clear skies with a low of 62.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny with a high of 85. Winds will come from the south-southeast at 7-10 mph.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 63. Winds will come from the south-southwest at 3-6 mph.
Sunday: Increasing clouds through the day with scattered showers by 9 p.m. We will see a high of 84.
Sunday night: Overcast with scattered showers and a low of 70.
Monday: Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms by the early afternoon. It will be humid with a high of 85.
Monday night: Showers/thunderstorms with a low of 70.
Tuesday: Showers/thunderstorms, with possible strong thunderstorms Tuesday evening. Highs 84-87, lows 66-69.
Wednesday: Showers/thunderstorms end by the late afternoon. Partly sunny skies expected before sunset. Highs 80-83, lows 63-66.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 79-82, lows 61-64.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-84, lows 62-65.