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Providence weather: Dry weather ahead

Forecast discussion: Although I have been talking about it for days, we finally received the periods of heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms were accompanied by lightning and strong winds, which helped take down small trees and some power lines. However, Providence only received about a half inch of rain. The area most hit was from a line from Newport County to southern Bristol County. Newport received 1.31 inches of rain, while New Bedford, MA received 1.5 inches. Taunton, MA received the most rainfall, with just over 2 inches since midnight.

The good news is inland areas will no longer see any rain. However, the cold front that brought all this precipitation will remain off the coast of Cape Cod. So, the Cape and Islands will continue to see showers and isolated thunderstorms through the overnight. The computer models indicate the front will finally move offshore by Thursday afternoon. High pressure controlling the entire middle U.S. will keep us dry, and bring less humid air into New England.

The high will keep us with nice weather right into the weekend. It appears we will be entering our seventh straight weekend of dry weather in Rhode Island. Temperatures will be slightly below normal, as a cold dome of air that brought temperatures 15 degrees below normal in the Northern Plains moves over our neck of the woods. But, we will be able to give our air conditioners a much needed rest.

The next chance for any precipitation appears to be Tuesday. However, the European model believes a weak low along the cold front will work its way back up into the Mid-Atlantic by early next week. The European model believes we will see rainfall by Monday morning, but ending by early Tuesday morning. The American model, which had been forecasting showers for Tuesday, has flip-flopped. It believes we will see dry weather until Wednesday. I do not believe in just changing the forecast simply because one model has changed its thinking. So, I will continue to call for isolated showers by Monday, and ending by Tuesday. But, because of the discontinuity in the models, my overall confidence in the forecast after Sunday remains low.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers and isolated thunderstorms along the Cape and Islands. We will see a low of 65.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and less humid with a high of 84. The Cape and Islands will see morning showers before becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. Winds will come from the west-northwest at 7-10 mph.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 62. Winds will come from the west-northwest at 3-6 mph.
Friday: Mostly sunny with a high of 80.
Friday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 64.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 82.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 63.

Extended Forecast:
Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs 80-83, lows 63-66.
Monday: showers arriving by the mid-afternoon. Highs 80-83, lows 63-66.
Tuesday: Showers ending in the early morning, becoming mostly sunny by the afternoon. Highs 81-84, lows 65-68.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-85, lows 64-67.

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