Forecast discussion: A strong high pressure system off the coast of North Carolina gave Providence and the rest of the east coast dry, sunny weather on Monday. With the help of some southeast winds, temperatures reached the upper 70’s inland, with the lower 70’s along the coastline. We will see another warm day, before a cold front leaves us with some showers for Wednesday.
The high will continue to influence our weather this evening, as well as keep moisture away from New England. But, the ridge that has been protecting us will begin to break down. This will allow for a cold front to bring some showers and isolated thunderstorms by Tuesday night. The front will remain over the region on Wednesday, so we will see more isolated showers. By Wednesday night, a low pressure system coming from western Texas will bring more rain and isolated thunderstorms on Thursday. This is because the low will come from the southwest and into the Mid-Atlantic region.
The low, along with the rest of the cold front, will finally move out to sea by early Friday morning. We will see the rest of any isolated showers come to an end at the same time. High pressure off the coast of Virginia will remain quasi-stationary, allowing us to have dry weather through the entire weekend. However, the big difference in the weather forecast for the weekend is the temperatures. Despite long range computer models predicting temperatures in the lower 80’s the National Weather Service is only forecasting temperatures in the middle 70’s. The Weather Service believes enough cool air aloft will help keep temperatures cooler.
However, the June sun is strong, and clear skies would bring temperatures into the 80’s. For now, I will cut it right down the middle, seeing temperatures slowly rise to near 80 degrees for early next week. But, my overall confidence in the forecast is low. All the computer models do agree on the position of the high’s center and temperature forecast in higher parts of the atmosphere.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Clear skies with a low of 57.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny with a high of 78. We will have south-southeast winds at 9-12 mph.
Tuesday night: Showers by 8 p.m. with rain and isolated thunderstorms after midnight with a low of 58. Winds will come from the east-southeast at 4-7 mph.
Wednesday: Rain tapers to showers by mid-morning, becoming more isolated through the day. We will have a high of 70.
Wednesday night: Cloudy skies with isolated showers and thunderstorms with a low of 59. Patchy fog may develop after midnight.
Thursday: Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms with a high of 71.
Thursday night: Scattered showers with a low of 58.
Friday: Showers end by about 3 a.m., with partly sunny skies by the late afternoon. Highs 71-74, lows 56-59.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-78, lows 55-58.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-80, lows 53-56.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny during the day, with cloudy skies and showers by the evening. Highs 77-80, lows 57-60.