Forecast discussion: High pressure over South Carolina kept dry weather over Providence on Saturday. However, Southern New England will be seeing three weather systems pass through the area this week. Two of the three will be minor systems, but Wednesday will see a major storm.
For tonight, we will be seeing cloudy conditions, as a low pressure system in the eastern Great Lakes slowly moves towards the area. By Sunday morning, there will be some isolated showers over the state, but the majority of the precipitation will move off to our north and west. Thanks to the warmer air over the area, high temperatures will reach 50 degrees in some parts of Rhode Island.
As we go into Sunday night, the cold front no over the Ohio River Valley will be passing through the area. Moisture will be picked up off the Atlantic, and the state will see some snow showers by the early afternoon. The front will move offshore by Monday evening, and skies will be partly cloudy. Also, colder air from Canada will move back over New England, as high temperatures on Monday only reach the middle 30’s.
The strongest low pressure system is slowly forming over western Texas at the moment. The low will follow the cold front, and will gain upper level dynamics and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The computer models continue to agree on the low’s general track. But, the models continue to disagree on the precipitation type as it moves over the state. Right now, the models agree it will start off as light to moderate snow right at midnight. We could see 2-4 inches before the precipitation changes over to freezing rain and/or sleet. By the mid to late morning, the precipitation will change to plain rain. The rain could be heavy at times, especially during the mid-afternoon hours. As the cold front passes through, colder air will return. The precipitation will then change back to a snow/freezing rain mix before changing back to snow showers. All precipitation will end by midnight.
For the rest of the week, a strong high pressure system will remain over the Northeast U.S. Temperatures will slowly rise from the middle to upper 20’s on Thursday to the middle 30’s next Saturday. However, overnight lows will be cold, with lows in the lower teens on Thursday, but slowly rising to the upper teens to lower 20’s by next Saturday.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with possible fog after 2 a.m. and a low of 35.
Sunday: Isolated showers through the morning; otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies. We will see a high of 49 with west-northwest winds of 7-10 mph.
Sunday night: Cloudy skies with scattered rain showers before midnight, then changing to snow showers. It will be colder with the low falling to 30 and north-northwest winds of 5-8 mph.
Monday: Flurries for inland areas, with light snow showers for the south coast, during the morning. Light snow moves in for the early afternoon everywhere. Snow showers end by the end of the evening commute. An inch of snow is possible. We will see a high of 36.
Monday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 25.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with a high of 36.
Tuesday night: Moderate snow by midnight, with 2-4 inches possible. Snow changes to freezing rain by 5 a.m. We will see a low of 28.
Wednesday: Freezing rain changing over to rain by mid-morning. Rain could be heavy at times. Precipitation becomes light snow showers by 7 p.m. before ending by midnight. Highs 35-38, lows 19-22.
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 26-29, lows 12-15.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-30, lows 15-18.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs 32-35, lows 18-21.