Forecast discussion: A low pressure system now moving into Quebec, Canada helped bring a cold front through Providence earlier on Tuesday morning. We received some showers during the overnight, and some moderate rain fell during the morning commute. We had received almost an inch and a quarter of rainfall. Partial sunshine took over the skies by the afternoon. As the low moves further into Canada, high pressure ridging will build over us this evening, slowly clearing our skies.
By tomorrow, the pressure gradient between the departing low and incoming high pressure ridging will create a northwest breeze. But, we will see mostly sunny skies, so good weather is expected for any outdoor plans. The high will continue to influence our weather into Thursday afternoon. High temperatures on Thursday will reach 60 degrees in some locales.
However, as we approach the weekend, the computer models begin to disagree on how much precipitation we will see. A weak cold front will come through on Friday, and stall over the region. So, we will see some scattered showers by the morning, but dissipate before the evening commute. By Friday night, a second low will form off of eastern Texas. It will pick up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and feed it along a frontal boundary. The boundary will pass through the area by Sunday night. We would then see heavy rainfall Monday and Tuesday, as a high pressure system stalls the movement of the boundary. At this time, the European models keep the weekend a little drier, and the boundary is still to our west come Monday. So, my overall confidence in the forecast after Sunday afternoon is low at this time.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Skies will slowly become partly cloudy with a low of 41.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and breezy with a high of 56. Winds will come from the northwest at 12-15 mph.
McCoy Stadium Forecast (12:05 p.m. vs. Syracuse): Mostly sunny, 55.
Wednesday night: Clear skies and colder with a low of 32. Winds will come from the west-northwest at 3-6 mph.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with increasing winds in the afternoon and a high of 59.
Thursday night: Increasing clouds through the overnight and windy with a low of 44.
Friday: Overcast with possible showers arriving by 8 a.m. Showers will end by 4 p.m. We will see a high of 61.
Friday night: Overcast with showers re-developing after midnight and a low of 42.
Saturday: Scattered showers ending by 4 p.m. We will see partly cloudy skies by midnight. Highs 60-63, lows 39-42.
Sunday: Mostly sunny until the late morning, with overcast skies by the afternoon. Showers will develop by 7 p.m. Highs 62-65, lows 44-47.
Monday: Moderate to heavy rain in the early morning, with isolated showers and drizzle by the afternoon. Showers return by the evening. Highs 67-70, lows 48-51.
Tuesday: Moderate to heavy rain, especially during the evening. Highs 59-62, lows 45-48.