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Providence weather: A tropical for Friday?

Forecast discussion: As we come to the end of June, we leave the month with another gorgeous day of bright sunshine. However, southwest winds helped bring more moisture from the south towards the north. The result was more humidity in the air, and the humid conditions will last into the end of the week. We will see dry weather into Wednesday, but a cold front and a possible tropical depression could spell gloom for the Fourth of July.

Right now, Invest 91-L continues to center itself about 90 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. The low is actually moving southwest at 5 mph. The system will slowly move west, before beginning to turn to the north by Wednesday. The spaghetti models show the system may move inland near North Carolina 72 hours from now. The big question is does the cold front that arrives here on Thursday help bring the low closer to Southern New England?

According to the same spaghetti models, it appears the cold front will actually push it offshore by late Friday night into Saturday morning. So, the inland areas of Rhode Island may only see partly sunny skies for Saturday. However, the coastal region will see high seas and swells from the system. Also, how strong will this system become, as it moves into the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream? I will continue to monitor the situation, and update you on the next forecast.

As we had into the middle of the week, a strong cold front that is creating a derecho over Illinois will bring the risk of some strong thunderstorms on Thursday and into early Friday morning. We still do not know if the moisture from the tropical system will affect Rhode Island. However, there is the risk of seeing some heavy rainfall Friday night into Saturday. This will definitely dampen any firework shows set for Friday night.

High pressure will slowly move offshore and remain to the southeast of Southern New England for the weekend. Cooler air from Canada will keep our temperatures seasonable, as highs only reach the upper 70’s to lower 80’s Saturday and Sunday.

72 hour forecast:

Tonight: Partly cloudy and humid with a low of 67. Patchy fog will develop by 3 a.m., especially along the coast.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and breezy with a high of 86. Winds will come from the south-southwest at 14-17 mph.
McCoy Stadium Forecast (6:15 p.m. vs. Durham): Partly cloudy, 82.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy, warm and humid with a low of 70. Winds will come from the south-southwest at 8-11 mph. Patchy fog will develop after 2 a.m.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, warm and humid. Temperatures will reach a high of 87.
Wednesday night: Cloudy and very humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms with a low of 71.
Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, where thunderstorms may be strong. We will see a high of 84.
Thursday night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms with a low of 68.

Extended Forecast:
Independence Day: Scattered showers/thunderstorms end by 5 p.m. with partially clearing skies. Highs 80-83, lows 61-64.
A tropical depression has the possibility of moving south of Southern New England on Saturday. For now, I will call for partly sunny skies. However, my confidence is quite low. This system could bring high seas along with periods of heavy rain, especially along southern Rhode Island. Highs 76-79, lows 59-62.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and less humid. Highs 79-82, lows 61-64.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-83, lows 62-65.