The charts contained within this slideshow are of the Presidents of the S&P500. Each chart shows the S&P500 price (in blue with price scale to the left) and volume (in black with volume scale to the right) during the term of each president. The caption contains data of the S&P500 during the president’s term(s), with a more detailed caption provided below. All calculations of the data provided is based on closing prices.
Although Dwight D. Eisenhower started his terms before the official S&P500 began in January 1957, the stock market did very well during his terms so I used the adjusted data prior to 1957 to allow for a full chart. I also used this data in comparison data within this article.
The calculations made within the slides and this article use the inauguration day closing price as the beginning and ending date for each president’s term with the following exceptions:
John F Kennedy’s term ended on the day of his death, and Lyndon B. Johnson’s began on the same day.
Richard Nixon’s second term ended with his resignation, and Gerald Ford’s began on the same day.
George W Bush was inaugurated on a Saturday, so the stock market was not open. The data for Bill Clinton uses the previous Friday, Jan 19, 2001 as his end date, while the data for George W Bush uses the following Monday, Jan 22, 2001 as his beginning date.
Data for Barack Obama is from his inauguration to Oct 5, 2012.
Some facts about the presidents and the S&P500:
There were six republican presidents that held office for 36 years and during their tenures the S&P500 finished 200.86 lower than it began for a 10.20% loss. Two republican presidents left office with the S&P500 lower than when they entered office. The largest increase was 154.98 (117.72%) by Ronald Reagan, the largest decrease was 537.68 (40.04%) by George W. Bush.
Notes: Dwight D Eisenhower saw an increase of 129.38% during his two terms; however the index only added 33.82 during that time. S&P500 losses during the George W Bush fiasco were 180.03 greater than the rises seen in all the other republicans’ tenures.
There were five democratic presidents that held office for 24 years and during their tenures the S&P500 finished 1635.29 higher than it began for a 111.16% gain. Four democrats left office with the S&P500 higher than when they entered office, and the fifth, Obama, has seen the S&P500 rise about 80% higher than when he entered office. The smallest increase was 9.65 (16.09%) by John Kennedy. The largest increase was 909.17 (209.79%) by Bill Clinton.
Republican Presidents have presided during seven market crashes, with Nixon and Ford sharing a crash that saw drops exceeding the 20% crash proportions for both presidents. The Democrats presided during two market crashes, and shared four with republicans with none of those reaching crash proportions during the democrats’ tenure.
The largest five crash drops during a president’s term have been with republicans in office, all exceeding 30%. The largest crash for a democratic president was with John F Kennedy, at 27.97%.
Two democrats and one republican finished their tenure without seeing a crash on the S&P500. Three republicans saw the S&P500 crash twice during their presidency.
More detailed captions of the presidents terms are included below.
Dwight D. Eisenhower - Republican President from Jan 20, 1953 to Jan 20, 1961. Although the S&P500 did not officially come into being until January 1957, I included his full terms using adjusted data prior to 1957. During the time Eisenhower was in office, the S&P moved 129.38% higher. Dwight saw one market crash during his two terms with a drop of 21.47%. The crash began August 3, 1956 from a high of 49.64 and bottomed Oct 22, 1957 at 38.98. This chart is the perfect example of a secular bull market.
John F. Kennedy - Democrat President from Jan 20, 1961 to Nov 22, 1963. The S&P500 moved 16.09% higher before Kennedy was assassinated. JFK saw one market crash during his presidency with a drop of 27.97%. The crash began from a high of 72.64 on Dec 12, 1961 and reached a low of 52.32 on June 26, 1962.
Lyndon B. Johnson - Democrat President from Nov 22, 1963 to Jan 20, 1969. LBJ saw the S&P500 move 46.09% higher during his tenure. Johnson also saw one market crash during his presidency with a drop of 22.18%. That crash began from a high of 94.06 on Feb 9, 1966 and reached a low of 73.2 on Oct 7, 1966. Another market crash began at the end of his presidency from a high of 108.37 on Nov 29, 1968, but had only fallen 6.16% by the end of his term.
Richard Nixon - Republican President from Jan 20, 1969 to Aug 9, 1974. Nixon was the first to leave office with the S&P500 lower than when he entered, seeing it drop 20.48% before he resigned. Richard was the first to endure two S&P500 market crashes during his shortened presidency. The first began during Johnson's term, but fell 31.68% during Nixon's rein. The total fall was from a high of 108.37 on Nov 29, 1968 to a low of 69.29 on May 26, 1970 for a drop of 36.06%. The second crash began from the Jan 11, 1973 high of 120.24 and had fallen 32.75% before Nixon exited office.
Gerald Ford - Republican President from Aug 9, 1974 to Jan 20, 1977. Ford saw the S&P500 regain the losses under Nixon, pushing 27.34% higher. There was one crash during Ford's presidency, although the crash began during Nixon's term and had already reached crash proportions, it fell another 22.98% during Ford's tenancy, topping the 20% required for a crash. The total fall from the crash was 48.20% from a high of 120.24 on Jan 11, 1973 to a low of 62.26 on Oct 3, 1974. A near crash began during his term, falling 4.51% from a high of 107.83 on Sept 12, 1976 before he departed.
Jimmy Carter - Democrat President from Jan 20, 1977 to Jan 20, 1981. The S&P500 moved 27.85% higher during Carter’s administration and he was the first to leave office without a crash of the S&P500. Although there was a near crash that fell partly during his term and fell an additional 15.61% while Carter was in office. The total fall was from a high of 107.83 on Sept 21, 1976 to a low of 86.9 on March 6, 1978 and dropped 19.41%. A crash began before Carter's term ended, starting from a high of 140.52 on Nov 28, 1980 and falling 6.31% before Jimmy left office.
Ronald Reagan - Republican President from Jan 20, 1981 to Jan 20, 1989. The S&P500 pushed to a then second best finish of 117.72% before Reagan left office. Ronald was the second president to have two market crashes during his two terms. Although the first started before Carter left office, it fell an additional 22.20% during Reagan's administration and was within crash proportions during his term. The total fall reached 27.11% from a high of 140.52 on Nov 28, 1980 to a low of 102.42 on Aug 12, 1982. The second crash began from a high of 336.77 on Aug 25, 1987 and fell 33.51% to a low of 223.92 on Dec 4, 1987.
George H. W. Bush - Republican President from Jan 20, 1989 to Jan 19, 1993. The senior Bush left office with the S&P500 51.19% higher than when he entered. George was the second president to finish a term without a market crash, although there was one drop that stopped just short of the 20% needed for a crash. That near miss began from a high of 368.95 on July 16, 1990 and fell 19.92% to the low of 295.46 on Oct 11, 1990.
Bill Clinton - Democrat President from Jan 20, 1993 to Jan 20, 2001. Bill shattered the record S&P500 increase during a presidency as the S&P500 raced 209.79% higher. He left office without presiding during a crash or near miss, and so far, the only President to do so. Although the 2000 crash began during his second term, it had only fallen 12.11% from the March 24, 2000 high of 1527.46 when he left office nearly ten months later.
George W. Bush - Republican President from Jan 20, 2001 to Jan 20, 2009. The Junior Bush followed Clinton is shattering a record, actually many of them, and they were all the worsts, when he left office the S&P500 was 40.04% lower than when he entered, the second to leave with the S&P500 lower, but the lowest of all. Although the first crash began under Clinton, it fell another 42.16% while Bush was in office. That fall began from 1527.46 on March 24, 2000, slid to a low of 776.76 on Oct 9, 2002 and dropped a total of 49.15%. To that point it was the largest fall seen on the S&P500. The second crash began from a high of 1565.15 exactly five years after the previous low on Oct 9, 2007 and had fallen 48.55% before GW left. This was the deepest drop during any president’s tenure, breaking his own record set during the first crash.
Barack Obama - Democrat President from Jan 20, 2009 to Present, with data based on Oct 5, 2012 close. So far Barack has seen the S&P500 push 81.43% higher. Despite entering office during the worst market crash ever seen on the S&P500, the President has not seen a 20% drop during his term. The crash that began on Oct 9, 2007 from a high of 1565.15 slid another 15.98% during the first couple months of Obama's presidency to a low of 676.53 on March 9, 2009 and the S&P500 record drop of 56.78%. Obama also had a near miss with a 19.39% fall from an April 29, 2011 high of 1363.61 to a low of 1099.23 on Oct 3, 2011.
Many of these sources of information were used in this article.
Have a great day trading,
ronz
Disclosure: I am currently about 92% invested long in stocks in my trading accounts. I am also short 20 year US Treasuries.
