Today's Real Clear Politics average of polls on the president's approval rating shows an approval rating of 52.1 percent to a disapproval rating of 42.9 percent. That translates to an approval margin of 9.2 percent. The average is based on ten recent polls, most of then commissioned or conducted by major news outlets. As with many of the polls last Fall before the election, the polls are skewed by over-sampling Democratic voters. To show what the result might look like without the “skew,” the unskewed calculations are offered below. This article shows how the “unskewing” process is done.
First is the Pew Research poll which was reported in January and shows an approval to disapproval rating of 52 percent to 40 percent based on surveying 1502 adults. This poll's sample favored Democrats by a 32 percent to 25 percent margin while the actual turnout as shown by the exit polls from election day last November was 38 percent Democrats to 32 percent Republicans. At one percent different this poll is not skewed.
The ABC News/Washington Post polls shows Obama with a 10 percent approval margin, or 53 percent to 43 percent approval. This poll samples 33 percent Democrats to 24 percent Republicans, which means it's skewed by three percent since it samples three percent more Democrats than the six percent margin of Democrats based on last year's exit poll. Unskewed, the results change a little, 53 percent approval to 45 percent disapproval.
The Associated Press poll shows an approval to disapproval ratings of 54 percent to 42 percent based on a survey of 1004 adults. This poll's sample was quite reasonable, including 41 percent Democrats to 36 percent Republicans.
The New York Times/CBS poll of 1110 adults showed a 51 percent to 41 percent approval rating for the president. This poll's sample included 26 percent Republicans and 34 percent Democrats. The unskewed numbers for this survey would be about 49 percent approval to 43 percent disapproval.
The lastest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows an approval to disapproval rating of 52 percent to 44 percent for the performance of Barack Obama as president. This poll's sample including 21 percent Republicans and 32 percent Democrats, which means it is skewed by five percent, almost double the margin of Democrats from the electorate last Fall as shown by the exit poll results. The unskewed numbers for this poll are about 53 percent approval to 47 percent disapproval, or a six percent approval margin instead of an eight percent approval margin.
The CNN/Time poll shows the president enjoying a 55 percent to 43 percent approval rating, or an approval margin of 12 percent. The survey sample including 34 percent Democrats to 26 percent Republicans - favoring Democrats two percent over the exit poll data's ratio. The unskewed data would indicate a slightly closer approval margin of about 53 percent to 45 percent.
The latest Fox News poll shows an equal number, 47 percent, approving and disapproving of the performance of President Obama. The sample for this poll included 39 percent Democrats and 34 percent Republicans, a fairly balanced survey sample as compared to the ratio of Democrats and Republicans in the exit poll data.
The recent Reason-Rupe poll shows Obama with a 52 percent approval to 42 percent disapproval rating based on a sample of 1000 adults. This poll's sample included 22 percent Republicans and 36 percent Republicans. This 14 percent margin for the Democrats means the poll is skewed by eight percent. Unskewed, the approval remains at 52 percent while the disapproval grows to 47 percent. This reduces the approval margin from 10 percent to just five percent.
The latest Gallup poll shows a wider approval rating than most of these polls, at 52 percent approval to 41 percent disapproval. Based on calculations from the poll's data, it appears the sample includes about 38 percent Democrats to 32 percent Republicans. The high 90 percent approval by Democrats is mostly what explains the overall 52 percent approval rating. Only 47 percent of independents in this survey approve of the president's performance.
The most recent survey added to the RCP average, the Rasmussen Reports poll shows the president enjoying a 53 percent to 46 percent approval rating. This survey featured a fairly balanced sample including 33 percent Republicans and 38 percent Democrats. That means this survey is not skewed.
Overall, some of these polls are skewed while some of them are using fairly balanced survey samples. The RCP average of polls shows an average of approval rating of 9.2 percent.
The new Unskewed Average of polls on Presidential approval will soon be on the front of the site, UnskewedPolls.com, based on these polls and their unskewed data, where the data was unskewed.
Back in full force: UnSkewedPolls.com still unskewing the skewed media polls!
Coming soon: ConservativeReform.com the future of the conservative movement and victory in 2014 and 2016 for Republicans begins here.
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