Wait, what? In what world could Newt Gingrich win the 2012 nomination? Isn’t he the only House Speaker ever disciplined for ethics violations? Isn’t he the guy who ended two marriages with affairs, one while his wife was in the hospital with cancer? Hadn’t hardcore right-wingers written him off as far back as 2010 for not being sufficiently conservative?
Yes, yes, and yes, but in this wacky nomination season, Newt Gingrich will win by the process of elimination. There is just no other candidate who can get enough Republican support. If you consider the candidates one-by-one it is clear Newt Gingrich will prevail.
Right off the bat we can eliminate Rick Santorum and Michelle Bachman. Neither of their campaigns has been showing any signs of life, and even in this polarized electorate, they’re too extreme.
Next, we can eliminate Ron Paul. The ceiling for his support is around 10%, and he is unlikely to move beyond that. Sure he’s spunky, but as a dove on foreign policy and a supporter of decriminalizing drugs, he’s never going to draw broad-based Republican support.
Moving to the (supposed) top-tier, we find Rick Perry. He’s been struggling in debates and in the polls, but with last week’s “oops” moment, his campaign is officially dead.
For weeks Herman Cain has seemed like a credible contender, but with his many gaffes and sexual harassment accusers, he too now has no chance. He has yet to fall as far in the polls as Rick Perry, but he’s on a downward trajectory and has little hope of clawing his way back up with all of these scandals dogging him.
That leaves Newt Gingrich’s only remaining opponent: Mitt Romney. From the beginning commentators have anointed him the inevitable nominee. Even the electorate sees it that way. In a poll out today, 48% of Republicans believe Mitt Romney will win the nomination. Another 22% think Herman Cain will win, while only 3% think Newt Gingrich will be the eventual nominee.
Despite the plurality of voters who think Romney will win, his poll numbers have a ceiling around 25% and he is currently on a slight downward trajectory. Republicans don’t want to nominate the man who created the model for “Obamacare,” and let’s face it, they don’t want to nominate a Mormon. Many political commentators try to downplay this latter factor, but 42% of voters have said that a Mormon president would make them somewhat or very uncomfortable, and the number one word voters associate with Mitt Romney is Mormon.
So, once you eliminate all the candidates who can’t win, where does that leave you? Right on Newt Gingrich’s doorstep. Sure, he has more than a few skeletons in his closet, but they’re old, and reviving decades-old criticisms doesn’t pack the same political punch. His campaign had gotten off to a slow start, but he’s now reporting fundraising momentum, and as the polls continue to swing in his favor, you’ll see fundraising pick up even further.
It might seem risky to make such a hard-lined prediction two months out from the first nominating contests, especially with a campaign season as erratic as this one. Picking Newt Gingrich is easy, however, once you realize no one else can win.
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