Where a high school student lives predicts his or her chances for obtaining a college degree. So does a student's gender, race and ethnicity according to The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). Today, the Fortieth Edition of the Projections of Education Statistics to 2021 was released on the web.
From 2010 to 2021, a period of 11 years, 24 million more students are expected to enroll in postsecondary degree-granting institutions. That's a 15% increase, down from a 46% increase in the prior 14 year period from 1996-2010, the NCES report shows.
Where those students hail from may make a difference. The total number of public high school graduates nationally are projected to rise by 5% but certain regions and states will experience a different story.
New York and 22 other states are expected to have at least a 5% increase in high school grads in school year 2021-22 than in 2008-09. However, the report shows eight states and the District of Columbia are projected to have at least 5% fewer high school grads in the 12 year period. That means college prep will be more common in some states than others.
The NCES collects, analyzes and reports data related to education, fulfilling a congressional mandate for this information. The latest statistics show the changes in student population predicted through the 2021-2022 school year in secondary and postsecondary education.
By region
Based on region of the country, the South is projected to have the largest increase of high school graduates and the Northeast the lowest. The number of public high school graduates is projected to:
- decrease less than 1 percent in the Northeast
- decrease 4 percent in the Midwest
- increase 8 percent in the West
- increase 11 percent in the South
More students in southern and western states may be prepping for college.
By state
"The expected 5 percent national increase in public high school graduates between 2008–09 and 2021–22 plays out differently among the states," the NCES report states.
There are 31 states with a projection of more high school graduates in 2021–22 than in 2008–09. On the other hand, 19 states and the District of Columbia have a projection of less high school graduates.
Not all states follow the statistics of their region. Unlike its region, New York State is projected to have a 5% or more increase in high school grads. That means more New York students may be in need of help with college prep.
By gender
Future college classrooms are expected to have more women than men. Women are projected to have an 18% increase and men are projected to increase by 10%. This is down from the 1996-2010 period increase of 49% for women and 42% for men.
Those colleges with on-campus housing will have to accommodate more females than males. It is also expected that more women will graduate from college than men.
By race/ethnicity
Hispanics are projected to have the largest increase in enrollment and Whites the lowest increase. Between 2010 and 2021, enrollment of U.S. residents is expected to
- increase 1 percent for students who are American Indian/Alaska Native
- increase 4 percent for students who are White
- increase 20 percent for students who are Asian/Pacific Islander
- increase 25 percent for students who are Black
- increase 42 percent for students who are Hispanic
It will be easier for colleges that seek a diverse student body to find qualified applicants. With more students seeking a college education, competition for admission will increase. The importance of college prep will continue to grow for all students as competition for college spots increases.
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