January 30, 2012. Miami. With a slew of last minute polls released today, it appears that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney may run away with tomorrow’s Florida Republican primary. Due to the state’s winner-take-all rules, two of the final four major GOP candidates have cut their Florida stays short already. Texas Congressman Ron Paul has already headed to Nevada to get a jump start on that state’s upcoming caucus. And former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum went home to spend some time with his hospitalized daughter.
That left only Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney to battle it out for Florida’s bountiful delegate count. Coming off a South Carolina win, former House Speaker Gingrich has seen his poll numbers slowly slide. The candidate blames his opponent’s massive ad spending for the lopsided poll results. Indeed, Mitt Romney’s campaign, along with his Super PAC, have outspent Newt Gingrich’s campaign, and his Super PAC, by a margin of 4 to 1. In a sprawling state like Florida with ten major media markets, the Gingrich campaign just couldn’t keep up.
According to a Marist poll released yesterday, Mitt Romney has a commanding lead in Florida:
Mitt Romney – 40 percent
Newt Gingrich – 25
Rick Santorum – 18
Ron Paul – 11
Undecided/Other – 6
A Rasmussen poll published this weekend also shows Mitt Romney with a large lead in Florida:
Mitt Romney – 44 percent
Newt Gingrich – 28
Rick Santorum – 12
Ron Paul – 10
Undecided/Other – 6
A Reuters/Ipsos poll also released this weekend had the following results for Florida:
Mitt Romney – 43 percent
Newt Gingrich – 32
Rick Santorum – 16
Ron Paul – 6
A fourth and final poll failed to included both Rick Santorum or Ron Paul, so we’re not including it here. One striking observation from the Reuters poll was the contrast between Friday’s poll results and yesterday’s. It showed Mitt Romney’s support increasing by 1 percent, while Newt Gingrich lost the same amount. Ron Paul also gained 1 percent. Rick Santorum however, jumped an impressive 3 percent just in the last 48 hours.
One or three percent from a poll with a margin of error just as high may not be cause for celebration. But it the trend continues, expect Mitt Romney to win handily in Florida tomorrow, with Rick Santorum giving Newt Gingrich a run for second place.
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