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Polling shows the tide turning against Democrats this fall

Has Obama's controverisal administration caught up to Democratic candidates?
Has Obama's controverisal administration caught up to Democratic candidates?
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There’s enough bad to go around for all Democrats in the latest Associated Press-GfK poll released Friday. By all indicators, the president’s policies are creating ominous signs for both House and Senate Democratic candidates.

Although the poll finds races for House seats tight, it is the Republicans who have continued to gain ground over Democrat opponents since January. The numbers are too close to call with the latest poll showing Republicans favored over Democrats 37-36 percent.

The Democrats began to lose ground in January around the time Obamcare was at its lowest polling numbers. A that time they held a 39-32 percent advantage over Republicans.

In the latest poll of registered voters, which is the most reliable of all polls, Republicans hold an advantage over Democrats by 14 points or 51-37 percent when those surveyed indicate strong political opinions. They are considered the most likely to vote.

The question brought about a dead tie when asked in January.

That's not the only positive sign in the poll for the Republicans. The American public is bringing a more favorable view of the Republican Party to pollsters. Of those polled, 38 percent now have a positive impression of the party.

Republican’s opinion of their party has risen 52 points in three months. Even the much maligned tea party is being greeted with better numbers.

A natural trend is most polled want their congressional representative re-elected, but other incumbents thrown out. Among registered voters who say they pay a great deal of attention to politics, 44 percent say they would like to see their current member re-elected, compared with 33 percent in January.

The tide of opinion is turning dramatically in the country as the election is now less than seven moths away.
The Democrats are seeing a complete reversal of Republican support. More Democrats than ever say they’d vote for a Republican.

Independents see the opposition as the controlling force, with Republicans more apt than Democrats to see Obama in charge, and Democrats more likely to say the Republicans have the upper hand.

That is a natural order of things.

But six in ten (62 percent) with an above average interest in politics think Obama has a lot or quite a bit of control of what the federal government does. Only half of those below average in interest polled say Democrats in Congress exert a similar influence over what the federal government does and 40 percent say the same about Republicans in Congress.

These are decisive numbers that keep political strategists for both parties up at nights. The shift in the country’s political thinking has compared with the Reagan election in 1980, six grueling years for Republicans after the end of Watergate.

Does this mean Americans have seen enough of the Obama administration and Democratic rule in Congress, specially the Senate?

The AP-GfK Poll was conducted March 20-24, 2014 using KnowledgePanel, GfK's probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,012 adults, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all respondents.

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